23/07/2026
When Government Becomes the Market's Biggest Competitor: The Hidden Cost of High Treasury Yields
By HEN Capital & Finance PLC
Every economy depends on one fundamental principle: capital should flow to its most productive use. Businesses create jobs, industries drive innovation, entrepreneurs solve problems, and private investment fuels long-term economic growth.
But what happens when the safest investment in the economy becomes more attractive than building a business?
That is the question Nigeria must confront.
In recent years, the Federal Government has increasingly relied on Treasury Bills, FGN Bonds, Sukuk, and other debt instruments to finance public expenditure. These instruments have offered investors relatively attractive returns while carrying significantly lower risk than investing in private businesses.
For many investors, the choice has become straightforward.
Why commit capital to a factory, a technology startup, a real estate development, or a manufacturing business—where success depends on market conditions, ex*****on, regulation, and competition—when government securities provide predictable returns with considerably less uncertainty?
This shift has profound implications for Nigeria's economy.
At the centre of the discussion is an apparent policy contradiction.
The Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) serves as the benchmark for lending in the financial system. As this benchmark rises, borrowing costs across the economy also increase, making commercial loans more expensive for businesses.
At the same time, the Federal Government raises funds from investors through Treasury Bills, Bonds, and Sukuk, offering yields that have become increasingly attractive in recent years.
The result is that government securities compete directly with private enterprise for scarce investment capital.
For an investor with ₦100 million, a government security offering a return of around 17 percent annually represents approximately ₦17 million in yearly income, largely without the operational risks associated with running a business. Even smaller investors receive predictable returns that many private investments struggle to match on a risk-adjusted basis.
This naturally influences investor behaviour.
Capital begins to migrate away from productive sectors of the economy and toward government debt instruments.
While this may satisfy the government's short-term financing needs, it raises important long-term questions about economic development.
Every naira invested in productive enterprise has the potential to create employment, generate tax revenue, stimulate supply chains, encourage innovation, and expand national output.
A manufacturing plant employs workers.
A technology company develops new solutions.
A logistics company strengthens distribution networks.
A property development stimulates construction, materials production, and numerous supporting industries.
These investments create multiplier effects throughout the economy.
Government securities, by contrast, primarily provide financing to the public sector. Their broader economic impact depends largely on how effectively borrowed funds are deployed.
If public borrowing finances productive infrastructure—roads, rail, ports, power generation, healthcare, education, and digital connectivity—the economy benefits through improved productivity and stronger long-term growth.
However, if borrowed funds do not translate into meaningful improvements in productive infrastructure, the opportunity cost becomes increasingly significant.
The economy loses not only the capital directed toward government securities but also the businesses that were never established, the factories that were never built, the innovations that never reached the market, and the jobs that were never created.
This is perhaps the greatest hidden cost of sustained high government borrowing.
It quietly changes investor psychology.
Rather than asking, "What business should I build?" investors begin asking, "Which government instrument offers the highest yield?"
That shift represents a movement away from entrepreneurship toward passive investment.
No economy has achieved sustained prosperity solely by encouraging citizens to lend money to the government. History shows that long-term growth is driven by private enterprise, productive investment, technological innovation, and the willingness of entrepreneurs to take calculated risks.
This is not an argument against government securities.
Treasury Bills and Bonds play an essential role in every modern financial system. They provide safe investment options, help governments finance development, and contribute to financial market stability.
The challenge lies in maintaining balance.
Public borrowing should not become so attractive that it crowds out private investment.
An economy flourishes when government creates an environment where productive businesses offer competitive returns, access to finance is affordable, and entrepreneurs are encouraged—not discouraged—to invest in the real economy.
Investors should also recognise that today's attractive yields may not last forever.
Interest rate cycles change. Inflation moderates. Monetary policy evolves. Governments adjust borrowing strategies in response to changing economic conditions.
An investor who relies exclusively on government securities may eventually face a significantly lower return environment.
Diversification therefore remains essential.
Government securities can preserve capital and provide steady income, but wealth creation over the long term has historically been driven by ownership of productive assets—businesses, factories, commercial real estate, infrastructure, technology, agriculture, and other enterprises that generate lasting economic value.
Nigeria's future prosperity will depend not only on prudent fiscal management but also on restoring capital to the productive sectors of the economy.
The ultimate objective of economic policy should not simply be to encourage citizens to finance government borrowing.
It should be to create an environment where entrepreneurs are inspired to build companies, investors are rewarded for backing productive enterprises, innovation flourishes, and economic growth is driven by the expansion of the real economy.
That is how nations create sustainable wealth.
That is how economies become globally competitive.
And that is how Nigeria can unlock its full economic potential.