28/05/2026
Yesterday's decision by The Reserve Bank to hold the OCR at 2.25% was far from straightforward. The Monetary Policy Committee was split right down the middle: 3 external members voted to raise rates now, while 3 RBNZ members voted to hold. It was only Governor Anna Breman's casting vote that kept the OCR where it is.
The reason for the debate? Inflation driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict: higher fuel prices are pushing up costs for businesses, squeezing profit margins, and eating into household purchasing power. The Reserve Bank wants more clarity on how deep and widespread that inflation shock will be before acting, and doesn't want to risk damaging an already uncertain economy.
But the hold comes with a clear warning: rates will rise. The RBNZ's own projections point to an increase to 2.50% in September, with further rises into 2027 - potentially reaching as high as 4.0% by May 2027 according to some bank economists.
So what does this mean for property? 🏠
If you're on a floating mortgage or your fixed rate is coming up for renewal in the next 6–12 months, this is your window. Rates are still relatively low by historical standards, and the direction from here is up. Getting ahead of the curve - whether that's locking in a fixed rate, making your next purchase, or finally listing - could make a real difference.
If you'd like to talk through what this means for your property plans, our team is here to help 📲
