Assured Property Investments

20/07/2025

This episode’s a bit different.

I’m stepping back from the usual NZ housing chat to look at the big global macro picture—wars in Europe, oil prices climbing, and a US government now spending more on interest for its debt than its entire defence budget.

Why does this matter for New Zealand?
🏗️ Higher building costs
🏚️ Fewer developers building
💸 Rents rise, inflation sticks around

I also touch on investing in shares, gold, and silver, and how these global forces ripple through to the NZ economy, housing market, and your investments.

🎧 Listen now on Spotify – link in the comments below



https://open.spotify.com/episode/3XRSml4TVaRIcdsAr0yxUE?si=nyuetK6RTxya-BjiyhmFWg

Talking Property Development with John Kenel · Episode

08/04/2025

3 Reasons Why It’s a Good Thing House Prices Are Rising:

The recent uptick in house prices has sparked debate, but here’s why it’s actually necessary for a functioning housing market:

• We actually need prices to rise — costs to build (materials, labour, compliance) have skyrocketed. If prices don’t lift, developers won’t build. That’s a big reason building consents have collapsed. It simply doesn’t stack up financially to deliver new homes at current values.

• Rising costs are smashing landlords — rates, insurance, maintenance, and compliance are all up. If house prices and rents don’t increase to match, more investors will exit the market. That means fewer rental properties, right when we can’t afford to lose them.

• The government can't fill the gap — social housing has never been delivered at scale effectively. If private developers and landlords step back, there’s no back-up plan. Flat prices might feel nice politically, but they’re dangerous in practice.

Keen to hear your thoughts - agree, disagree, got a different angle? There’s no right or wrong here. Housing is already unaffordable, that horse has well and truly bolted. The real question now is: how do we make the best of the situation we’ve got?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/557005/the-housing-market-has-turned-around-but-is-that-a-good-thing?fbclid=IwY2xjawJhj5xleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHp8ErbxLfHbXehLYk8C6w_wgk8xGDL2ZgBHLgHKwB9sMW-rhou4dCELJJmVN_aem_Oeb78e8xQ1mi33OjWmge8g

CoreLogic is predicting prices are likely to rise this year by about 5 percent.

04/04/2025

Could a US Recession Impact New Zealand’s Housing Market?

The NASDAQ is down 22% from its December 2024 high—officially in bear market territory. JP Morgan is now forecasting a US recession this year. If the downturn continues and investor sentiment sours, the ripple effects will reach us here in New Zealand.

So what does that mean for the residential property market?

In times of global economic stress, capital often flows out of equities and into hard assets—especially property. Real estate is tangible, essential, and resilient. People need somewhere to live, regardless of what the stock market is doing.

If the US economy slows, it may prompt central banks—including our own—to rethink their tightening cycles. That could see our interest rates dropping even further than predicted. Markets currently expect a neutral OCR of around 3.0% by the end of 2025, but a global slowdown could shift that lower. And one thing we know for sure: when interest rates drop, house prices tend to rise.

Meanwhile, we’re already facing a supply crunch. In the 12 months to February 2025, Stats NZ reports just 33,595 new dwellings were consented—a 7.4% drop from the year before and a staggering 32.7% decline from the February 2022 peak of 49,883. That’s more than 16,000 fewer homes.

Apartments and townhouses were hit hardest, with consents down 19.8% and 14.8% respectively. Fewer homes being built, combined with strong tenant demand, is creating a floor under house prices.

For long-term investors, this is a time to stay focused—not fearful. Cash flow, quality builds, and tenant demand matter more than market noise. The cycle will turn. It always does.

Want to get ahead by building equity and creating your own cash flow?
Learn how at thepropertydevelopmentclub.com

02/04/2025

Another drop in building consents – down 7.4% over the last 12 months. That’s now three years in a row of falling consent numbers. It’s not surprising given the current market conditions – an oversupply in some areas, high construction costs, and so much uncertainty around policy. The real issue will be when demand picks up again – will we have the people and capacity to respond? At the moment, it’s not looking likely.

Residential and commercial building consents both continue to decline

31/03/2025

Ever wondered what goes under your floor?
I was out at our Moore Street site in Cambridge today. We’ve just passed the pre-floor plumbing inspection—shout out to the Waipā District Council Building Consent Team for being practical and helpful. Now we’re ready to pour the slabs next week.

In the meantime, the boys are flat out tying steel between the polystyrene pods. It’s proper back-breaking work. None of them love it, but it’s absolutely critical. This stage might not look flashy, but it’s the foundation—literally—for everything else.

The pods you see here are for insulation, but they also help form the slab. So they reduce the amount of concrete needed and they make the homes warmer and more efficient. They’re both insulation and a key building element.

Respect to the crew on the ground doing the real work. This is what it takes to get houses built. Governments don’t build houses. Policies don’t build houses. Even developers don’t build houses—I wasn’t out there on my hands and knees today.

The tradies do the work! The builders, plumbers, sparkies, roofers, landscapers, earthworks crews, and all the other people involved—putting in the physical labour and skilled work that’s essential.

I’m lucky to have a great team. And this is one of the reasons I keep building—because I enjoy creating. I enjoy working together with good people, skilled people, to make something real. Something that matters.

31/03/2025

Momentum Building: House Prices Rise for 5th Straight Month

Otago’s average property value reaches an all-time high, crosses the $1m mark for the first time.

27/03/2025

Everyone’s talking about AI. But most of what’s being said is either hype or fearmongering. The real conversation—especially if you’re a property investor or you’re looking to get into development—should be about how AI can actually make you more efficient, more competitive, and ultimately, more profitable.

Click the link below to read the article:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-trends-every-property-investor-aspiring-developer-should-kenel-ejkgc

24/03/2025

Housing affordability in New Zealand has improved. The house price-to-income ratio sits at 7.3 times the annual household income as of Dec24 (Corelogic), down from a peak of 10.1 in 2021.

Several factors have contributed to this improvement:
- declining House Prices
- rising Incomes
- lower Mortgage Rates

While it's a step in the right direction, affordability is still a challenge for many, especially renters, with the rent-to-income ratio now at a record 28%.

Saving for a 20% deposit remains a challenge, taking 9.8 years on average. An improvement from 13.5 years in 2021, it still exceeds the long-term average of nine years.

16/03/2025

NZ Property Market Improving

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/132401/national-median-house-price-rose-29-february-january-reaching-772000?fbclid=IwY2xjawJEK-NleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHSPJbsh_omxnzggLZKr9slOV7brgSP1qr9DDiYo_3JtXJIBSHBuAGMMDIg_aem_6zBOWC944IhvG1bVi9LeMQ

National median house price rose 2.9% in February from January, reaching $772,000

05/02/2025

More Quality Rentals for Cambridge!
We’ve just started 10 brand-new, warm, healthy homes in Cambridge. The site is being cleared now, but we’re making sure nothing goes to waste—one house is being relocated, and the other is being carefully deconstructed Waikato Demolition to recycle as much as possible.

These 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, single-level homes with garages are purpose-built for long-term rental. We’ll manage the lawns and gardens, creating a well-kept, hassle-free place to live.

We already have a great selection of rentals in Cambridge, and with more developments in the pipeline, there’s even more choice coming, both for purchase and for rent. If you’re looking for a quality home in Cambridge, get in touch!

02/02/2025

From Horses to Homes: Big plans for Te Rapa! Check out my thoughts in the Waikato Times today

https://www.waikatotimes.co.nz/nz-news/360565761/housing-safe-bet-te-rapa-racecourse-redevelopment