07/08/2026
This week in NZ:
More mortgage rate hikes from the NZ trading banks, as offshore funding rates increase, and they are passed onto you...surprise surprise...chuck in a bounce in the NZ Dollar as well, and it hits exporters in the pocket too.
FX:
All because the worlds best FX trader, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent decided to intervene (jointly with Japan for the first time since 1998) to prop up the Japanese yen, and this in turn saw the Antipodean currencies of Aussie and Kiwi all rally too...don't fight the FED...Rule 101 of FX.
Here's this weeks brickbats and bouquets:
The rural and lifestyle markets in the northern parts of the North Island experienced a lift in sales activity in July, recording its highest number of sales in a month for 10 months...
GDT flat...
Wool:
The national wool market remained under significant pressure at the fortnightly sale on July 30, with prices plummeting further across most wool types and second shear crossbred being hardest hit, falling 20%. There was, however, some encouragement with the finer wools continuing to receive support from both exporters and processors.
But some great news from the NZ Meat Association, as New Zealand red meat exports were worth a record $1.37 billion in June, up 50% on the same month last year.
https://mia.co.nz/june-red-meat-exports-lift-strongly-with-annual-exports-also-higher-for-2025-26/
Jobs:
The Unemployment Rate wasn't great at 5.6%, but this in turn may dampen the expectations of another RBNZ rate hike on 2nd of September, and you sure as heck are unlikely to get one at the next meeting on 28th of October, as the NZ general election is of course the 7th of November.
Markets are way to carried away with pricing in doom and gloom from the RBNZ....Dr Breman isn't going to the green shoots just as they emerge...
An interesting few days in the NZ election polling department...a bit of bickering amongst the Coalition partners...plus 2 surprise polls.
TOP (the opportunities party) on the move...up..and quickly.
First the Roy Morgan poll:
TOP 8%
10% (up 3%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this includes 8% (up 1.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 2% (up 1.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
And todays Tax payers Union Poll, as The Opportunity Party crossed the 5% party vote threshold in a mainstream poll for the first time, reshaping potential leverage in Parliament.
TOP 6.1%
A wee reminder of TOP's agriculture policies....
Farm ownership: TOP argues that lowering rural land prices would make ownership more accessible to young farmers.
TOP’s reasoning is:
*Introduce a 0.5% annual Land Value Tax on rural land.
*Because owning land would carry an ongoing tax cost, buyers would theoretically offer less for it.
*Lower prices could reduce the deposit and borrowing required by young farmers.
*The tax could also encourage owners to sell underused land or subdivide part of a farm.
*TOP says this would help younger farmers enter ownership and invest in innovative production.
Not all doom and gloom, but some factors to be aware of....and at least a good frost killed a few grass grubs.
Contact me at Colliers Rural & Agribusiness New Zealand if you want to have a chat...or email me direct.
[email protected]
We’re the voice of New Zealand’s red meat processors, marketers and exporters.
