Gary Lin

27/06/2026

More good news on the future interest rate forecast this week.

Crude oil prices drop further this week from $78 USD per barrel down below $72 USD.

Swap rates hasn't dropped much, but is on the right downward trajectory for the past few weeks.

Economists are now revising their forecast for the timing of OCR increase.

If middle east peace persists, and oil prices drop further and stabilise, we will see fear of rising inflation subside.

Once inflation is under control, so will mortgage interest rates, and ultimately resume the confidence building and economic/property market recovery we have had in late 2025.

25/06/2026

Is the NZ property market dead?

There have been a few commentators debating whether the future of the NZ property market is dead and buried.

Yes, if you put two pins say 2016 vs 2026, NZ property prices appear to have gone sideways in the past 10 years.

However, looking at the average prices over the past 25 years, the NZ property market has gone through 3 distinct property cycles:
1st cycle:
- 2000 to 2007 boom
- 2007/2008 to 2011 bust
2nd cycle:
- 2011 to 2017 boom
- 2017/18 to 2019/2020 bust
3rd cycle:
- 2020 to 2021 boom
- 2022 to 2026 bust

Confidence & prices was starting to recover towards last quarter of 2025, but the Iran conflict derailed the recovery, much like the Christchurch earthquake derailed the 2010 property recovery.

Going forward however, we need to stick to the fundamentals why NZ property has made more Kiwis wealthy than business or the sharemarket in the past few decades.

1) Immigration
NZ is an immigrant country, population growth = more demand/consumers = more jobs = more demand for housing
- While net migration has reduced in recent years, long term migration has always been positive.
- Look at Sydney and Melbourne as a classic example where immigration drives economic growth and house prices
- People are having less kids, but there are still millions of skilled & wealthy people around the world who would love to migrate to NZ

2) Interest rates & lending
Interest rates and lending drive house prices more than people realise.
- back in 2016 my Debt to Income Ratio was about 10 times total gross income
- 2021 mine was near 9 times, and some banks were lending up to 11 times income
- now in 2026 it is 7 times. No wonder prices are kept quiet given maximum borrowing has reduced significantly
- interest rates drives affordability, maximum lending, and confidence
- the fear of oil shock driven inflation and interest rate rises have kept confidence low, but this will end. When inflation and interest rates drop back down, confidence will rise, and more buyers will return to the market

3) Change of government
Right now, a lot of investors and working Kiwis are worried about the new taxes potentially introduced by the left.
- while all these taxes are scary, but a lot of past growth was under a Labour government
- NZ had the biggest immigration & house price booms under Helen Clark & Jacinda Ardern governments
- So whichever government is in power, doesn't really affect NZ house prices, long term

What about shares?

If you invested in Nasdaq in Feb 2000, your shares would have gone sideways all the way until Jul 2015. That's 15 years of not much happening except mostly in a rut!

If you invested in S&P 500 in Apr 2000, prices didn't increase until May 2013!

Stick to the fundamentals, and think long term.

PS: no investment advise given, please speak to an investment adviser specifically on your own personal circumstances.

22/06/2026

Higher oil & fuel prices are causing inflation worries and higher interest rate predictions.

Economists & wholesale markets are prediting & pricing in 2 x 0.25% Official Cash Rate rises in 2nd half of 2026.

This week fuel prices appear to have kept dropping, which is a great sign!

Biggest drop is diesel, which our trucks, machinery run on, especially trucks that deliver our groceries to the supermarkets.

Hopefully this downward trend in oil and fuel prices continues, and lessen the worries on inflation.

Ultimately less pressure for our Reserve Bank to increase interest rates!

18/06/2026

What's hot in the NZ property & mortgage market this week?

1) Iran/US conflict ends, or will it?
Iran and US have a memorandum of understanding to stop the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz this week.

This is a massive positive move for the oil market. Oil has dropped from $90+ down to $78/79 USD per barrel Brent Crude.

Wholesale interest swap rates have dropped a lot, but market has still priced in 3 x 0.25% OCR increases since November 2025.

Will the trend be permanent going forward?

No body knows unfortunately... fingers crossed peace will last...but don't bet on it...

2) NZ GDP grew 0.8% in March quarter
False hope perhaps...given the Iran / US conflict started late Feb... the inflation & economic pessimism has not flowed through to inflation data and GDP just yet...

I won't be surprised to see a negative GDP figure for June quarter

3) Auction results
Barfoot auction results are particularly bad... 1 in 5 to 1 in 7 sold in auction rooms across the week.

Normally 30% auction success rate is recession territory...

1 in 5 or less is in depression territory??

I feel for real estate agents...

4) Buyers aren't buying
I have 10 clients pre-approved to buy their first home, investment property, and their next home. A mixture of buyers.

Only 1 is very actively looking. Another 2 semi active.

Rest are sound of crickets...

In my 6 years of lending, and 16 years being a property investor, I can't remember a time where buyer activity is this bad...

5) Bank Appetite is Growing
With reduced buyer activity, the feedback our Lighthouse Mortgages team are getting that few banks are desperate for more lending.

They are not reducing lending criteria however, which is the right thing to do.

Refinance demand is still strong, with decent cashback between 0.9% up to 1.25%

6) Interest rate drop
Westpac has dropped their 3 to 5 year longer term interest rates, as a result of drop in wholesale rates, which will be music to mortgage holders!

27/05/2026

Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% today.

The interesting thing is that 3 of 6 on the board that voted for rates rise...and have signalled the holding period is coming to an end and hikes are on the horizon.

So the OCR appears to "sure to rise" in the next announcement or in the coming months...

As Kiwibank economist Jarrod Kerr has said, it is not if, but when rates will rise, and the chance of rates drop is slim to none...

We at Lighthouse Financial are actively encouraging our clients to refix early. In some cases clients are proactively breaking interest rate fixed terms early, and fix for a longer term.

If you need any advise around your mortgages, give me a shout.

Reserve Bank holds Official Cash Rate at 2.25% as expected, but needed the Governor’s casting vote after a 3-3 split vote

21/05/2026

NZ home loan rates are on a slight rise again this week.

I have been contacting clients 60 days in advance before their current refix term expires, and encouraging them to think about locking in rates in advance now.

Most banks allow borrowers to lock in the next refix term 40 to 60 days in advance.

With rates on the rise, many clients are choosing to refix for longer. 18 months and 2 year rates are the most popular refix choices.

If you have been with your bank for more than 3 years, and you haven't received any cashback, perhaps give your bank a nudge and get some cashback retention too!

Some clients aren't happy with the cashback retention being given, and some banks are offering up to 1.25% cashback on refinance.

13/05/2026

Great evening celebrating with the team at Lighthouse Financial at the Kiwi Adviser Network annual awards night!

We came 2nd in the advisers 5+ category, which is a great achievement!

Thank you Michael Vincent & Andrew Armstrong for leading an amazing team, along with Mitch Worthington, Ian Chan, Jasmina Lohi, Vincent Connett, Ish*ta Shrivastav, and Keith Nansen 👍

Finally thank you to the amazing Warwick Slow and Sarah Johnston for your ongoing support 🙏

08/05/2026

Here's another happy client with their mortgage problem soon to be solved.

Clients VS are couples who are doctors owning their own GP practice.

They recently built a home, but are now charged low equity premium across their home and one rental property by their main bank.

Reason that a low equity premium is charged is because their Loan to Value Ratio LVR across two properties are 89%. When LVR is above 80%, banks will charge low equity premium between 0.25% to 1% above normal home loan rates.

Client VS is upset that their main bank couldn't help them, and I was initially unable to help too.

But after further discover of what they do, I found that they have shareholder equity in their GP business.

So my proposal is to raise a business loan of the amount required to bring down the home loan to meet 80% LVR, equal or less than the shareholder equity in the business.

Then either stay with the existing bank with a cashback retention, or if VS choose, refinance to another bank for more cashback, which will also offset some of the break fees to bring their home loan rates back down without the low equity premium.

The result will be that they will achieve a net savings about $15k interest rates paid, and hopefully a bit of cashback $15-20k let over as well!

Just another normal day in the office for a mortgage adviser!

06/05/2026

Unemployment expected to get worse as fuel crisis impact yet to be felt, according to Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr.

The unemployment rate eased to 5.3 percent in the quarter ended March.

Kerr said the data was "very outdated", and the full impact of the fuel crisis would be felt later this year.

"We are hearing of construction projects being post-poned, projects being cancelled..forestry crews being stood down because it's too expensive to cut-down trees..."

Surging air fares and flight cancellations are likely to dent the tourism industry.

"Businesses, when a crisis hits - they cut worker hours before they cut their jobs...that's where the slack shows up first."

My take on this is that you should get prepared.

Get your CV ready.

Look for signs of restructuring or layoff rumours.

Start applying jobs before s hits the fan.

Review your mortgage structure now.

Make sure your interest only period on your rental loans don't expire in the next 12 months.

Work out the cashflow implications if the rental loans go into principal and interest.

Interest terms coming up for renew in the next 6 months, consider ask the bank for break fee, and potentially break to refix for longer term.

If you are unsure how to protect yourself with a better mortgage structure, let's chat!

Kiwibank's chief economist says the full impact of the fuel crisis will be felt later this year.

24/04/2026

NZ mortgage rates are on the up and up...

Swap rates are definitely creeping up and up, largely due to uncertainty around fuel shortages and inflation impact to come...

This week few banks have increased their fixed mortgage rates, as well as test rates.

This not only means your mortgages coming up for refix are getting more expensive...

But also your maximum borrowing capacity is on the decline...

Current 1 year fixed interest rate is about 4.59% discounted.

Based on the swap rate jump, equivalent to 25 June 2025, the 1 year rate at the time was 5.09% advertised, and probably 4.89% discounted via your favourite mortgage adviser.

If you have any mortgage fixed rates coming up in the next 60 days, definitely start thinking and potentially locking in rates now!