18/06/2026
𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗟𝗼𝘄
Wellington values struggled lower in May, reaching a new low point since the peak in late 2021. Things were looking good in the first few months of the year, but around the time of the Iran conflict we saw a noticeable drop in buyer activity and values.
New listings have been coming to market at a fairly typical rate - not high, not low, just normal - so the softness is not coming from excess new supply. But sales have slowed down significantly in the last 3 months, with 10% fewer sales than the same 3 months last year.
The timing seems more than coincidental. The slowdown in sales occurred during the Iran conflict, and it is reasonable to assume buyer confidence was affected by geopolitical tension, higher fuel prices, and concerns that inflation could re-emerge. In addition, mortgage rates stopped falling, and in some cases increased, which came as a surprise to many buyers. So, the pullback in buyer interest resulted in fewer sales, which is likely to be the driving force behind lower values.
For sellers, good results are still being achieved. The key ingredients are realistic pricing, strong presentation, and a well-executed marketing campaign. For buyers, there is more supply available at this time of year than we have seen for 11 years, meaning more choice and less competition.
𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Many sellers believe winter is a bad time to sell, and also that it's a terrible idea to sell before an election. An election often feels uncertain, and people hate uncertainty.
But the data disproves both these theories. I have one slide in the slide deck that shows what happened in the months before the last election. In summary...
1. Average open home traffic tripled compared to the months immediately prior;
2. Values increased by around 10% as we approached the election; and
3. TradeMe data also shows that their listings get more attention in the depths of winter than any other time of the year.
These are massively compelling data points! So why does the market behave exactly the opposite of how people intuitively expect it to?
The answer is psychological. Many sellers assume winter and election periods are poor times to sell, so they delay bringing their properties to market. The result is fewer listings, less competition between sellers, and often stronger competition between buyers.
In many cases, that increased competition leads to stronger sale prices.
In other words, sellers trying to outsmart the market often create the very conditions they are trying to avoid.
If you're considering a move in the next 6–12 months, don't automatically rule out winter or the pre-election period. In many cases, these can be surprisingly effective times to sell.
𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗧𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵
As always, every situation is different. If you'd like to discuss your plans, give me a call and I'd be happy to help.
Wellington Values Fall to a New Post-Peak LowWellington values str...
