09/09/2026
🏡 Where might house prices move first? ↗️
Tony Alexander’s latest analysis makes an interesting point. The next phase of the property market is unlikely to be a uniform nationwide recovery. Instead, regional economic conditions may increasingly determine where prices start moving first.
A few numbers tell the story:
• NZ average house prices are down 0.4% over the past year and remain around March 2023 levels (28% ahead of March 2019).
• But the picture varies considerably by region. West Coast prices are up 13%, Queenstown 7.1%, Southland 6.3% and Canterbury 4.1%.
• Strong dairy incomes, recovering tourism, affordability and local economic activity are helping drive those markets.
• Alexander suggests regions with improving economic prospects may be next to see stronger price growth.
• Longer term, population growth will also matter. Stats NZ projects Auckland’s population to grow 39% between 2023 and 2053, with Canterbury at 33%.
The takeaway? We may be moving away from a market where the whole country rises and falls together. Local employment, tourism, primary industries, affordability and population growth could increasingly determine which markets move first.
For coastal areas such as the Coromandel, where tourism, lifestyle migration and buyers releasing capital from larger centres all play a part, that makes regional fundamentals particularly interesting to watch.
As ever, there probably won’t be a starting gun announcing that the market has changed. By the time everyone agrees it has, it usually already has.
Source: Tony Alexander, OneRoof, 9 September 2026.
