04/02/2026
CONDO GLUT: WHY METRO MANILA’S OVERSUPPLY LOOKS LIKE A GOVERNANCE FAILURE — NOT JUST A MARKET CYCLE
Metro Manila is drowning in condominiums — and the numbers show this is not just a normal real-estate slowdown.
According to Colliers Philippines, the region ended 2025 with about 7–9 years’ worth of unsold condominium inventory, even after aggressive discounts and promos by developers. Just six months earlier, the oversupply had reached an alarming 13+ years of inventory — one of the worst gluts in Asia.
Even after a modest rebound in sales (“take-up”) to about 10,000 units, vacancy remains near 25%, with some areas such as Pasay-Parañaque, Manila, and parts of Quezon City having far worse figures. That means hundreds of thousands of units were built that Filipinos could not realistically afford or absorb.
So how did this happen?
Because local governments earn huge money when towers are approved — not when people actually live in them.
Every condo project generates:
• Building and zoning fees
• Fire, occupancy, and environmental clearances
• Realty and transfer taxes
• Pre-selling registration fees
These are collected upfront, even if the building later sits half-empty.
So LGUs had strong incentives to approve as many towers as possible, regardless of traffic, flooding, water, power, or real housing demand.
At the national level, housing regulators (HLURB → DHSUD) largely relied on developer-submitted demand forecasts instead of independent verification. Utilities and infrastructure agencies also kept issuing clearances, even in already congested and water-stressed districts.
Banks kept funding the boom because condos could be booked at developer list prices, not real market value — masking the true risk.
This is how regulatory capture works:
The agencies meant to protect the public end up serving the industry they regulate.
The result is what we see today:
• Overbuilt skylines
• Congested roads
• Flood-prone communities
• Expensive land
• And tens of thousands of empty units
This is not random.
It is the predictable outcome of a system that rewards permits and projects more than livable cities.
⸻
Sources:
• Colliers Philippines via InsiderPH
• BusinessWorld
• Colliers PH Residential Market Reports (2025)
⸻
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This post discusses systemic risks, governance failures, and regulatory incentives based on publicly available data.
It does not allege criminal conduct by any specific company or public official.
⸻
