Excelsior Consulting

08/10/2026

🏠 Portugal Leads the EU in House Price Growth

Portugal has recorded the fastest annual increase in residential property prices across the European Union, according to the latest Eurostat data.

📈 In Q2 2026, house prices in Portugal rose by 16.5% year-on-year, putting the country ahead of:

🇧🇬 Bulgaria: +15.5%
🇱🇹 Lithuania: +14.3%

Across the EU, house prices increased in 23 countries, while only three recorded declines, including Finland (-2.7%) and France (-0.8%).

Portugal also maintained strong quarterly momentum, with property prices rising by 3.6% between Q1 and Q2 2026.

While Portugal leads in annual price growth, several other EU markets recorded stronger quarter-on-quarter increases.

💶 Rental growth is not keeping pace with property prices

Across the EU, rents increased by:

3% year-on-year

0.7% quarter-on-quarter

Eurostat also reports that between the 2025 annual average and Q2 2026, property purchase prices outpaced rental growth in 18 EU countries, including Portugal.

🔎 What does this mean for real estate investors?

Capital appreciation and rental income are two distinct drivers of investment returns.

Portugal's strong property price growth highlights the potential for capital appreciation. However, slower rental growth means that rising property values do not necessarily translate into equally strong rental yields.

For investors, the key is to look beyond headline price growth and assess both long-term appreciation potential and rental income performance.

09/09/2026

🚇 Porto plans to invest €1.2 billion in transport infrastructure: metro expansion, tunnels and free public transport

Porto is preparing a 10-year Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (PMUS), with around 75% of the total budget allocated to public transport.

Half of the entire investment — approximately €600 million — is expected to go toward expanding the metro network.

It is important to note that the plan is only now entering the public consultation stage. As this is a long-term strategy, individual projects, timelines and funding allocations may still change.

💶 Where is the investment expected to go?

🚇 New metro lines — €600 million
🎫 Free public transport for residents — €213 million
🚗 Roads, parking and urban logistics — €176 million
🚲 Cycling infrastructure and other alternatives to private cars — €88 million

Among the projects under consideration are:

• Moving three sections of the VCI ring road underground
• Redeveloping Circunvalação
• Upgrading the Hospital São João transport hub
• Introducing public transport along the Ramal da Alfândega corridor
• Extending the Campo Alegre and Faria Guimarães tunnels

📅 When could the changes happen?

The investment is heavily weighted toward the longer term:

• €81.1 million during the first two years
• €181.7 million between years two and five
• €945.3 million after the fifth year

The Municipality of Porto is expected to contribute €478.3 million, while the remaining funding should come from other public authorities and transport organisations.

🏘 What could this mean for real estate?

New metro lines and transport hubs could significantly reshape accessibility across Porto, influence passenger flows and increase the attractiveness of residential and commercial properties located near key transport connections.

However, most of the investment is planned for the second half of the 10-year period. For now, the PMUS should therefore be viewed as an important indicator of Porto’s long-term urban development priorities, rather than a guarantee of rapid property price growth in specific neighbourhoods.

For investors and property owners, the key will be to follow which projects move from strategic planning into approved, funded and scheduled development.

07/09/2026

✈️ Tourists are not disappearing from Portugal — they are changing routes.

In July, overnight stays by U.S. visitors fell by 3.1%, while French overnight stays declined by 5.9%.

But these two markets tell different stories.

🇺🇸 U.S. demand is still up 3.4% year-to-date, so this looks more like a slowdown than a reversal.

🇫🇷 French demand is weaker on a more structural basis, down roughly 8% since the start of 2026.

The main pressure is concentrated in Lisbon.

Why?

• Lisbon depends heavily on U.S. and French visitors.
• Air capacity between France and Portugal fell by 6.6% this summer.
• Flights and accommodation have become more expensive.
• Lisbon charges a €4 tourist tax per person, per night.
• French consumers are becoming more price-sensitive.
• Spain, Greece and lower-cost destinations are competing more aggressively.

At the same time, demand is shifting elsewhere.

While Lisbon lost U.S. overnight stays, Northern Portugal recorded a 9.3% increase. Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland are also contributing to growth.

So this is not a crisis for Portuguese tourism.

In July, total tourism revenues still rose by 4.9% to €923.7 million.

What is changing is the geography of demand — and the composition of guests.

🏨 For real estate investors, this matters.

Buying a short-term rental property based on the idea that “tourism in Portugal is growing” is not enough.

Before investing, I would check:

• Which nationalities drive demand in that specific city
• How dependent the market is on one or two source countries
• Whether direct flights operate year-round
• How occupancy and ADR change by month
• Whether the property still works under medium- or long-term rental scenarios

For Lisbon, the key risk is not that tourists disappear. It is that guests become more price-sensitive.

A property may remain highly occupied while owners find it harder to increase nightly rates without weakening demand.

And stronger U.S. growth in the North is not an automatic buy signal either. It still needs to be assessed against new hotel supply, competition, seasonality and transport accessibility.

💡 The investment takeaway:

Do not invest in “Portugal’s tourism growth” as a headline.

Invest in specific, measurable demand — supported by overnight-stay data, flight connectivity, occupancy trends and realistic alternative-use scenarios.

01/09/2026

🇵🇹 Portugal Tightens Immigration Rules: What Changed in 2026

Portugal has moved further away from the “arrive first, legalize later” model. In 2026, relocation requires more planning, stronger financial proof, and more time for citizenship and family reunification.

Key changes:

1️⃣ Post-arrival legalization is no longer the standard route
The Manifestação de Interesse pathway was closed to new applicants in June 2024. Entering as a tourist, finding a job, and then applying for residence can no longer be treated as a normal migration strategy.

For most employment routes, applicants now need the correct visa before arrival. For the D3 highly qualified worker visa, the 30-day deadline applies to visa processing — not to issuance of the AIMA residence card.

2️⃣ Higher income thresholds for D7 and D8
Portugal’s mainland minimum wage in 2026 is €920.

• D7: at least €11,040 per year for the main applicant
• D8 Digital Nomad Visa: average income of at least €3,680/month over the previous three months

Authorities also assess income stability, source of funds, and housing documentation.

3️⃣ Golden Visa remains available — but not through real estate
Property purchases no longer qualify for a new ARI/Golden Visa.

Main routes include:
• €500,000 in qualifying investment funds
• €500,000 in scientific research
• €250,000 in cultural or heritage projects
• certain business and job-creation options

ARI investments cannot be directed, directly or indirectly, into real estate.

4️⃣ Citizenship now takes longer
From 19 May 2026, the previous general five-year rule no longer applies to new applicants.

The standard residence periods are:
• 7 years for EU citizens and nationals of Portuguese-speaking countries
• 10 years for most other foreign nationals

Transitional rules apply to cases filed before the reform took effect.

5️⃣ Family reunification is stricter
The general rule is now two years of legal residence before applying.

In some cases, spouses or partners may qualify after 15 months if they lived together before relocating. Exceptions also exist for children and some highly qualified residents, Golden Visa holders, and EU Blue Card holders.

6️⃣ Job-search visas and renewals are changing
The standard job-seeker visa is being replaced by the Visto para Procura de Trabalho Qualificado, aimed at applicants with qualifying technical skills.

AIMA’s online renewal system is expanding, but the process is not fully automatic: extra documents, biometrics, or an in-person appointment may still be required.

Key 2026 numbers:
€920 minimum wage
€11,040 annual D7 benchmark
€3,680/month D8 benchmark
7–10 years to citizenship

Portugal is still open to relocation — but success increasingly depends on advance planning, the right visa strategy, and well-prepared documentation.

31/08/2026

🇵🇹 Portugal is safer than ever. But that doesn’t mean your investment will make money.

S&P has kept Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at A+ with a Positive Outlook.

For investors, that is clearly good news.

But there is a catch.

Portugal’s public finances are improving, while the economy itself is starting to slow.

📉 The numbers tell a mixed story:

• 2026 GDP growth forecast cut from 2.2% to 1.7%
• Budget expected to move from surplus to a 0.2% deficit
• Public debt projected to fall from 85.9% of GDP to around 75% by 2029

This is exactly why Portugal is an interesting case.

The country looks increasingly stable from a sovereign-risk perspective, but that stability does not automatically translate into high investment returns.

💼 What does this mean in practice?

Real estate
Portugal may remain relatively resilient to major macroeconomic shocks, but slower growth could weaken domestic demand.

That means investors should be careful with one assumption in particular:

“Prices went up before, so they will keep going up.”

In a slower economy, location, entry price and real end-user demand matter much more.

Financing
A strong sovereign rating helps keep Portugal’s risk premium under control, supporting a more predictable lending environment for businesses, investors and international buyers.

Business
Portugal can still be an attractive place to launch new projects, especially those linked to tourism, international clients or EU investment.

But business plans based on aggressive growth in local purchasing power may need to be revised.

💡 My main takeaway:

Portugal is becoming less of a “high-growth story” and more of a capital-preservation story.

That is not necessarily bad.

For many investors, stability, declining public debt and institutional credibility may be exactly what they are looking for.

But in this environment, the question is no longer:

“Is Portugal safe?”

The better question is:

“Which assets and projects can still outperform in a slower-growth Portugal?”

That is where the real investment opportunity is.

28/08/2026

🏠 Portugal’s property sellers are asking €159,000 more than buyers are looking to spend

According to Imovirtual data for May–July 2026, the average asking price of properties listed for sale in Portugal was €399,155, while the average budget reflected in buyer searches was just €240,000.

That represents a 66% gap between supply and buyer demand.
It is important to note that these are not completed transaction prices. The data compares sellers’ asking prices with the budgets and preferences entered by buyers when searching for property.

📌 What does the data tell us?

🏡 Houses
Houses accounted for 57.3% of buyer searches, but only 39.1% of listings.
Average asking price: €447,500
Average searched budget: €230,000
The gap is almost 95%.

🏢 Apartments
Average asking price: €385,000
Average searched budget: €245,000
A difference of approximately 57%.

🛏 Property type
T3 apartments are the most common type of property listed for sale. However, among searches where buyers specified the property type, T4 houses were the most sought-after option.

📍 Geography
Lisbon, Porto and Setúbal districts together accounted for 53.3% of all searches.
Among smaller municipalities, Cadaval stands out with 21.2 searches for every property listed, indicating particularly strong demand relative to available supply.

⚠️ Where is the price gap the largest?
The biggest difference between asking prices and buyer search budgets was recorded in:
• Grândola — 240%
• Cascais — 155%
• Loulé — 121%
• Castro Marim — 112%

🧩 Key takeaway
The data points to a clear shortage of houses and apartments within the price range that buyers are actively searching for.

For investors and developers, this may be an important signal: properties aligned with real buyer budgets and demand could offer stronger liquidity and potentially be easier to resell in the future.

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25/08/2026

🏚 A house in exchange for renovation: can vacant homes in Portugal be brought back into use without changing ownership?

Habitare NaturaMente — Housing First is a pilot social project by APTEA in the municipality of Torres Vedras.

The concept is simple: an owner temporarily provides a vacant property, APTEA organises renovation through donations and volunteers, and the refurbished home is then used to accommodate families facing housing difficulties.

⚙️ How is the model expected to work?

According to the public description:
• the owner provides the property for around two years without rent
• APTEA raises funds, materials and volunteer support
• after renovation, families are accommodated temporarily
• each family may stay for up to three months
• the project aims to support eight families over two years
• at the end, the renovated property is returned to the owner

Ownership does not transfer. The expected legal structure is a comodato — a gratuitous temporary-use agreement.

🏠 What does the owner gain?

The main benefit is the renovation of a property that is currently vacant and generating no income. An occupied and maintained home may also deteriorate less over time.

But the economics need to be assessed carefully.

For a 75 m² property, our scenario estimate suggests that two years of forgone gross rent could amount to approximately €14,600–20,300.

This model may therefore make most sense when the property cannot currently be rented safely without significant renovation. For a rent-ready home, giving up two years of income may cost more than the improvements received.

📄 What should the agreement cover?

Before participating, the owner should clearly define:
• the exact scope of renovation works
• whether successive families may occupy the property
• who pays IMI, condomínio and utilities
• liability for damage and hidden defects
• insurance during renovation and occupancy
• when the use period starts and how the property is handed back

Volunteer work may be suitable for painting, cleaning and other basic tasks. Electrical, gas, structural and other regulated works should be carried out by qualified professionals.

📅 Where does the project stand?

The first known property is in Ermegeira. As of 24 August 2026, public information confirms only the renovation and preparation stage. There is still no public confirmation that the renovation has been completed, technically accepted, or that the first family has moved in.

💡 For property owners, this is an interesting model — but still an early-stage experiment, not yet a proven scalable solution.

Participation should only be considered after legal and technical due diligence, a calculation of lost rental income, and a detailed agreement defining each party’s responsibilities.



https://badaladas.pt/uma-casa-por-tres-meses-para-mudar-a-vida-inteira

24/08/2026

🏗 Portugal made it easier to reclassify rural land for housing — yet only 27 procedures have been registered in 18 months.

At the end of January 2025, amendments commonly known as the new Lei dos Solos came into force. They introduced a simplified mechanism for reclassifying land from rural to urban use, potentially opening the way for residential development.

📊 What has happened in practice?

By 31 July 2026, only 27 reclassification procedures had been registered nationwide:
• 21 completed
• 6 still ongoing
• only 9 new procedures since February

The cases cover 23 municipalities, including Loures, Coimbra, Albufeira, Olhão, Maia and Santa Maria da Feira.

The official figures do not specify how many procedures are actually related to housing. The total also includes economic and logistics projects.

🏛 How does reclassification work?

A landowner or developer may submit a proposal, but this does not mean the land automatically becomes urban.

The process typically includes:
• assessment by municipal services
• a decision by the Câmara Municipal to initiate the procedure
• public consultation
• final approval by the Assembleia Municipal

Reclassification therefore depends not only on the plot itself, but also on the municipality’s development strategy.

🗺 Why so few cases?

Many municipalities are still adapting their PDM municipal master plans to the new rules. By the end of July:
• 143 municipalities had completed the update
• 135 were still in the process
• 278 municipalities were being monitored

⚠️ What should landowners and investors check?

The new law does not automatically turn rural land into building land. Before purchasing, it is essential to verify:
• proximity to existing urban development
• compatibility with the local housing strategy
• access to roads and utilities
• REN, RAN, protected-area and flood-risk restrictions
• whether the municipality is likely to support a PDM amendment

💡 The key takeaway: reclassification can significantly increase a plot’s development potential, but pricing land today on the assumption of future approval is risky.

Until final municipal approval is obtained, the land should be valued according to its current legal status.

For due diligence on the planning potential and risks of a property in Portugal, contact Julia Egorova:
https://t.me/JuliaEgorova_Portugal

https://t.me/yuliainvestpt ИНВЕСТИЦИОНЫЙ КОНСУЛЬТАНТ

18/08/2026

🌇 Bright 2-Bedroom Apartment with a Terrace in the Historic Center of Cascais (Rua de São Cristóvão) | €1,900

Looking for a cozy place where you can comfortably live and work? An excellent, fully renovated apartment (80 sqm) is available for long-term rent.

The apartment is thoughtfully designed: with east- and west-facing windows, you will always enjoy plenty of natural light, excellent cross-ventilation, and absolutely no issues with dampness! ☀️

What’s inside:

🛏 Two bright rooms. A master bedroom and a second room that would make a perfect home office or guest bedroom. Both bedrooms have direct access to a balcony.

🌿 Enclosed terrace. Spacious and cozy, with direct access from the furnished living room.

🍳 Fully equipped kitchen. All essential appliances are already installed.

🛋 Move-in ready. The apartment comes furnished and features excellent built-in wardrobes.

🚿 1 bathroom in excellent condition.

🏢 1st floor (no elevator).

Location:
Rua de São Cristóvão — a highly convenient location right in the heart of the city. Shops, cafes, restaurants, public transport, and all essential amenities are literally just a few steps away.

💰 Rent: €1,900 / month.
📝 An official contract is provided. Exact move-in conditions and pet policy can be discussed individually.

📩 Send me a direct message — I’ll be happy to answer all your questions, share additional photos/videos, and arrange a viewing!

11/08/2026

🏨 €1.42B in H1 2026: Where Real Estate Investors Are Putting Their Money in Portugal

Investment in Portuguese commercial real estate reached €1.42 billion in H1 2026, up 11% year-on-year, keeping Portugal among Europe’s most attractive investment destinations.

International investors accounted for 65% of transactions, while the share of Portuguese capital increased to 35%.

💶 Where is the capital going?

Hotels attracted 34% of total investment and retail another 32% — together accounting for almost two-thirds of the market.

Major transactions included:

• Corinthia Lisbon hotel — approximately €150M
• Ritz-Carlton Penha Longa resort
• Aqua Portimão shopping centre
• A logistics portfolio worth around €90M

Logistics represented 13% of investment, while offices accounted for just 6%.

The market is becoming increasingly selective: investors are focusing on high-quality assets or properties with value-add potential through refurbishment, repositioning or change of use.

⚠️ Growth was uneven

Around €930M was invested in Q1, compared with approximately €490M in Q2. So the 11% annual increase does not necessarily indicate continuous acceleration — several large transactions early in the year had a significant impact.

🏢 Offices & logistics

In Lisbon, office take-up reached 66,900 sqm, although demand slowed. Prime rents remained at €32/sqm/month.

Porto recorded 15,850 sqm of office take-up, up 46%, with prime rents at €21/sqm/month. A shortage of high-quality space continues to limit market activity.

Logistics take-up reached 199,180 sqm, with Greater Lisbon accounting for 52% and Porto for 25%. Limited availability of modern facilities continues to support rental levels.

🏠 Residential prices rise despite fewer transactions

In Q2, residential prices increased 14% YoY, while the number of transactions in H1 fell 7% to 75,860.

Resale transactions declined 10%, while new-build sales increased 14%.
📍 Lisbon: €5,770/sqm, prices +13%, transactions −11%
📍 Porto: €4,030/sqm, prices +9%, transactions −11%

The key takeaway: rising prices are being supported by limited supply, but this does not mean every property is highly liquid.

🏨 Tourism continues to support hospitality

Through May, tourism revenues increased 5.7% to €2.36B. The average room rate reached €154, despite occupancy declining to 63%.

Another 84 hotels with 7,970 rooms are currently under development, and 56% of the future supply is in the upscale and luxury segments.

Portugal continues to attract capital — but investors are becoming more selective about sector, location and asset quality.