12/02/2022
Humble Perspective on ASEAN Countries (2022) Developing Philippines
๐ธ๐ฌ: Staying Ahead of Time: Becoming the Future
๐ฎ๐ฉ: Getting More Clever, Wise and Mature: AND Itโs Going To Be Massive
๐ป๐ณ: Rising like the Sun, Hot, Fast & Furious
๐น๐ญ: The Much-Loved White Elephant That Gets Mad & Messy
๐ฒ๐พ: The Strong Tiger That Could Get Way Stronger
๐ฐ๐ญ: Too Late Too Small Too Little Space, Only to Pray for Small Little Miracles
๐ต๐ญ: A Huge Pile of Golden Treasures on the Backyard. A New Economic Era?
๐ฒ๐ฒ: Rich But Poor, Fate in the Air uncertain.
๐ธ๐ฌ: Singapore always strives to stay ahead of time. Singapore is not preparing for the future. Singapore is already becoming the future. Singapore has expanded Singapore Changi Airport (the worldโs best airport) and the Port of Singapore (the worldโs 2nd busiest port) not necessarily to meet the demand but to be the future. Singapore bans sugary drinks islandwide for the purpose of raising its public health which will raise Singaporean populationโs marginal economic productivity and competitiveness even higher. Singapore legalized gambling for the very first time ever in history at Marina Bay Sands, a move among many to qualify the city state as a world-class high-end entertainment hub and high-end tourism hub. Singapore does not have a bit of everything like Thailand. Singapore has the best of everything. Even Sentosa Merlion is to be demolished to make way for new development that will reshape the world-famous Sentosa resort island and the adjacent Pulau Brani into a premier leisure and tourism destination. Singapore is already removing exams and rankings from primary and secondary schools in an effort to equip Singaporean students with future-ready skills in the fast-evolving world of the 21st century. Singapore is already reinventing the concept of its public housing (HDB) where more than 90% of its population lives, focusing on the livability, green spaces, community bonding and connectivity and the Internet of things connecting the people and physical spaces digitally and generating big data and real time data for early warning issues and quicker, more responsive and efficient early solutions. This Internet of things is also applied to the other physical spaces and communities (offices, transport, buildings, infrastructure, etc.) throughout the island state to revolutionize the way people live, work, play, travel, and communicate. Singapore is not reforming like most ASEAN countries are doing. Singapore is rethinking and reinventing everything. Singapore is always edging and inching closer to the future which few nations could afford to do. Singapore is not an almost perfect country. Singapore is the worldโs most future-ready country and thatโs the greatest strength of Singapore, not the economic might or educational excellence.
๐ต๐ญ: The Philippinesโ lack of interest in taking advantage of its english speaking workforce and lack of interest in opening up the country to foreign investors to be competitive in the asean region is what keeps the country in maximizing its full potential which needed to be addressed.
Thankfully .New brand of leaders who are pro-infra and pro economic reforms are slowly shaping up the countryโs economic policies in the right direction.
Filipinos tend to worship white people to the point that they are willing to bend over mostly to their colonial masters and are highly regionalistic compared to its other peers who are highly nationalistic and are much more united.
Filipinos has the same individualistic attitude mindset like those of failed economies of Latin America compared to its much more richer and progressive East asian neighbors who tend to have a more collective mindset.
Yet โThingsโ are changing as The Philippines is trying to watch and emulate its more successful Asian neighbors trying to catch up to the modern era.
The Philippines sustained low and moderate economic growth during the entire 2nd half of the 20th century, and then high growth during the last decade which is quite unusual because normally countries sustain high economic growth at first and then moderate growth and eventually slow growth in their open market economic development journey. So why? The answer might be the Philippines is reborn. Itโs a totally new Philippines now. The Philippines is awakened and itโs going to be something quite massive if the Philippines could successfully turn its renewed and refreshed life around. In fact, the Philippines has a huge pile of gold on its backyard and it seems the Philippines is finally aware of it and is probably in the process of planning to make the best use of their golden treasures (abundant natural resources and natural beauty, relatively well educated English speaking massive workforce, relatively established industrial base, globally successful call centers and business outsourcing industry, massive remittances from the Filipino diaspora working abroad, massive domestic consumption and middle class, and you add more) in their backyard. As the Philippines is starting anew and afresh, it needs more strong, tough and honest leaders to effectively discipline the seemingly bad guys (oligarchs) at the top. You canโt change them but you can change the rules and the rules will change them accordingly hopefully.
๐ป๐ณ: Vietnamโs economic drama is squeezed and sandwiched between the two extreme ends of the spectrum. Vietnam is currently standing between the ASEAN 4 (๐น๐ญ๐ฒ๐พ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ต๐ญ) on the one side of the spectrum and the East Asian Economies (๐ฏ๐ต๐ฐ๐ท๐น๐ผ๐ญ๐ฐ๐จ๐ณ) on the other side of the spectrum. Iโm sure the Vietnamese economists and the government alike have understood this very well and are carefully and cautiously learning from both the success ingredients of the East Asian Economic Miracle on the one side of the spectrum and the failure lessons of the ASEAN 4 on the other side of the spectrum who are potentially being stuck in limbo in the so-called Middle Income Trap, having effectively failed in long-term industrial manufacturing upgrading and long-term residual technological/technical progress over the last 2 decades. Vietnam is standing the test of time and benefiting from the both contrasting sides and will not most likely be wasting time and resources in repeating the ASEAN 4โs mistakes while hugely inspired by the success secrets of the East Asian Miracle. Itโs gonna be an interesting economic drama to watch over the next couple of decades to come. Over the last 60 years, the ASEAN 4 have collectively failed to develop homegrown globally competitive heavy and high tech industrial manufacturing products, homegrown globally competitive Multinational Corporations (MNCs), advanced financial systems, advanced indigenous technologies and innovations with advanced Research & Development (R&D), world-class human capital such as advanced education systems and advanced healthcare systems (except ๐ฒ๐พ๐น๐ญ that boast world-class healthcare), world-class infrastructure and transport networks (except ๐ฒ๐พ), fully-fledged strong democratic systems and efficient clean public institutions, strong competent governments that can formulate sweeping effective reforms, deliver effective smart public policy, and effectively insulate itself from the Royal and economic elite and business class, and you add more. For example, ๐ฒ๐พ has failed its homegrown automotive industry, failed education reforms (The education minister has resigned consequently.), and you add more. ๐ฎ๐ฉ has failed its homegrown aรฉroplane industry (Dubbed as โPet Projectsโ) amongst other things. ๐น๐ญ has failed to realize significant local content in manufacturing for export processing.
๐ฎ๐ฉ: Indonesia boasts successful decentralization (as opposed to the Philippinesโ failed rural development policy) which has yielded praiseworthy outcomes in not only addressing the potential secessionist movements and uniting the diverse ethnicities throughout the archipelago, but also in increasing and attracting foreign investments to local districts, distributing the economic growth evenly, and spurring local investment and development in public goods and services such as schools, hospitals, infrastructure, transport, etc. throughout the entire archipelago. Indonesia is geographically close to ๐ธ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐บ and a firm friend with the West especially America, which is a great asset economically (foreign investments plus no risks of potential de facto economic sanctions like ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฒ). Diplomatically, when it comes to ASEAN affairs, Indonesia is never seen as bossy despite being the biggest country in ASEAN unlike bossy India in South Asia. In fact, Indonesia is perceived as a wise de facto ASEAN leader with a stable democracy, relatively competent administration and relatively clever public policy with its institutions ranking above Thailand and its quality of overall infrastructure on par with Thailand (Thailand is way more compact geographically). As the worldโs top 11 agricultural products exporter and as the worldโs leading producers of various industrial and commercial crops, Indonesia has seen successful agricultural revolution. After Western colonialism, Indonesia boasts a history of effective leaders as opposed to the Philippines which has seen mostly ineffective leaders. The current administration of the Indonesian President is clever with its smart move to move its capital to Kalimantan as part of its long-term strategy to develop and attract more significant FDIs to the entire giant Kalimantan with abundant resources and vast land approximately the same size of the whole Thailand alone. The fact that Indonesia is able to move its capital reflects its sufficient intellectual, fiscal, engineering, and administrative capacity and resources to do so. Indonesia plans to develop its new capital as a smart city to use as the breeding and seeding ground model and blueprint for other urban centers across the entire archipelago. Indonesia is already a trillion dollars economy and a member of G20 whose voice has a stake in creating rules for the global economic and political system and order. In the next few decades to come, Indonesia will become a G10, G5 as well as A4 (๐จ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฉ), something quite massive and significant.
๐ฒ๐พ: Again, Malaysian government or state is effectively strong and competent and can effectively challenge and insulate itself from the Royal and the Chinese economic elite and business class. This is not the case in Thailand. Malaysiaโs clever Mahathir saved Malaysia for millions of dollars ๐ต from Chinaโs high speed railway project linking KL & Singapore when he decided to suspend the project only later to reinstate it after the Chinese company recalculated and reduced the project costs. Clever wasnโt it? Imagine what else he could have done so far for lucky Malaysia! Plus, Malaysia also enjoys a gift of a gifted young energetic youth minister who looks more than ready to lead and influence the new generation of Malaysian youths to make Malaysia a better place it deserves. Malaysiaโs biased policy to favor the Malays is potentially hampering itself from realizing its fullest potential as well as spurring the brain drain trends which need to be reversed. Malaysiaโs political economy of race is yet to change course if Malaysia is to prosper further on par with the developed first world.
๐ฐ๐ญ: Cambodia is heavily dependent on foreign capital, foreign aid, foreign markets, foreign investments, foreign technology and foreign-prescribed policies. Although Cambodiaโs economic record over the last 2 decades is nothing short of impressive, todayโs global political and economic systems leave Cambodia significantly narrow strategic space to maneuver and navigate. Cambodia can get crushed anytime economically and politically. Cambodia has partially lost EBA and if Cambodia were united as one under strong visionary strategic intelligent leadership with the 2 million labor migrants currently working abroad returning home, then Cambodia could have achieved double of what Cambodia has done so far, and yet sadly this is a very dim and distant hope. Cambodiaโs current education and healthcare systems are chronically underdeveloped and substandard and Cambodia currently has no sufficient resources and capacity to reverse these critical problems. All Cambodia can do right now is to keep moving on and moving forward and pray for the best for the little small miracles.
๐น๐ญ: Thailand has everything every ingredient to become wealthy and developed except for one thing. Everything in Thailand is aging. The infrastructure stock is aging. The public transport is aging. The population is aging (baby bust). The agriculture is aging. Thailand is likely to get old, aged, burnt out, and exhausted before getting rich, prosperous, mature and powerful. Bangkok is overburdened and over concentrated. The political crisis continues to persist and the economic growth continues to be alarmingly slow even much slower than ๐ฒ๐พ whose income per capita is way higher. Thailand is messing and mixing up everything. Thailand has a bit of everything as opposed to Singapore that has the best of everything. Its society, its tourism, its Bangkokโs unplanned urban sprawl, its gender (excuse me for this), and even its royal lineage (mixed Tai, Sino, Mon?). The Asian financial and economic crisis in the late 1990s originated in Thailand and while Japan ๐ฏ๐ต, America ๐บ๐ธ and Western Europe each survived their respective financial and economic crises, recessions and depression, and then continued to thrive till today, Thailand ๐น๐ญ on the other hand didnโt. 2 decades later, Thailand is still in stumble and shambles. Thailand and East Asia were both experiencing high sustained rapid economic growth for several decades with quite similar growth patterns, and yet while the East Asia continued its economic development journey to the straight path from rags to riches and from authoritarian to democratic, Thailand has derailed instead. In Thailand, the Royal and the Bangkok Chinese own everything; they own many companies while the farmers own rice fields and debts and robbed votes like Cambodia. Thailand should not only continue to build more and more world-class massive shopping malls, but also world-class schools and world-class classes as well as world-class infrastructure and public transport systems, and most importantly world-class governments. Thailandโs highly effective and powerfully soft diplomatic skills coupled with Thailandโs soft gentle Buddhist cultural magic will always help Thailand to prevail amidst big global geopolitical and geoeconomic storms as its history has demonstrated, yet strong, competent, honest and independent government (good governance and public policy) is the most important magic for Thailand if it is to not just prevail but also prosper and succeed as a strong prosperous powerful nation.
