06/05/2022
Singapore 'unlikely' to have recession after Fed hike but near-term risks remain, say economists
"Although Singapore's leaders have warned about the possibility of a recession, economists told BT it is unlikely to occur this year.
"We currently do not forecast a recession for 2022. Export demand still remains relatively robust, while the easing of domestic Covid-19 measures and the reopening of borders will push up consumer spending," said Moody's Cheok.
Concurring, UOB's Gan said: "Our Singapore GDP outlook still remains at 3.5 per cent, but given that there is somewhat stronger-than-expected high frequency data from industrial production and exports since the beginning of this year, that basically suggests that there can be some upside risk to our (outlook)."
But this has to be balanced with other risks - chiefly the Ukraine war, the slowdown in China and new Covid-19 variants.
For these reasons, Maybank senior economist Chua Hak Bin believes Singapore's growth is likely to slow this year but remain positive, with the probability of a recession at a low 6 per cent over the next 12 months."
Date: 6th May 2022
Source: The Business Times
EXPECTATIONS for Singapore's monetary policy or growth trajectory were largely unshaken by Wednesday's (May 4) rate hike in the United States, and a recession looks unlikely for now - though some economists still see a risk of a slowdown, independent of the Fed's decision. Read more at The Business....
