16/09/2026
It's not going to be one and done.
A majority of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey now forecast at least two rate hikes over the next one year, with a third predicting three or more. It's a stark change from last month when just 46% expected a hike ahead. That's grown to 86% with 55% expecting more than a single hike.
Since last month, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, oil prices surged, inflation failed to cool, and respondents now seem to believe inflation has spread beyond energy and won't take care of itself without action by the Fed.
"There is nothing in the data that suggests inflation will return to target 'soon,'" said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. Dutta quoted Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has said, "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option."
Most of the 29 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, believe that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed at least a month longer and that oil prices will stay elevated for longer than six months.
"The renewed march higher in oil, gasoline, and diesel prices adds to concerns higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations," wrote Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Nationwide.
There's already concern that that's happening. Roughly three-quarters of respondents see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices. CPI forecasts rose for both 2026 and 2027, with the average forecast rising to near 3.5% for this year and then settling in at 2.85% in 2027.
Several respondents, however, were skeptical of the Fed's ability to lower fuel-driven inflation with rate hikes. "The FOMC faces a challenge in showing institutional credibility vis-a-vis the inflation piece of its mandate relative to its limited ability to impact supply-driven inflation using its rate setting tool," said Douglas Gordon, senior portfolio manager at Russell Investments.
The Fed will decide on rates Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. The last Federal Open Market Committee meeting was in July.
While higher oil is cited as a main reason for the change in view, roughly three-quarters of respondents see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices.
