24/07/2026
HDB resale prices have fallen for 2 quarters in a row.
The last time this happened was back in 2019.
So naturally, many of you are wondering:
âIs this the start of an HDB price crash?â
Hereâs my view.
First, letâs look at the bigger picture.
Since the market bottom in 2019, HDB resale prices have already increased by about 55%.
After such a huge increase, prices have only eased by 0.4% over the last two quarters.
Hereâs something many people missed.
Even though prices came down, the number of resale transactions actually increased by 1.8%.
If buyers were really panicking, you would expect fewer people buying HDB flats.
A good comparison is 2014. Back then, resale prices fell by 6%, and transaction volume also dropped by 4.3%.
Today, weâre seeing the opposite.
Buyers are still entering the market. Theyâre just becoming more careful about the price theyâre willing to pay.
Another interesting pointâŚ
In the last quarter, 16 towns saw prices fall, but 10 towns still recorded price increases.
If this was a real market crash, you would expect almost every town to be falling together.
Thatâs not whatâs happening today.
So personally, I donât think this is the start of a crash.
But⌠I do think HDB resale prices could continue to soften over the next few years.
Why?
Because a lot more flats are about to enter the resale market.
Around 13,500 flats will reach their MOP in 2026.
That increases to around 19,000 in 2027, and more than 21,000 in 2028.
Thatâs almost 54,000 additional resale flats entering the market over the next three years.
At the same time, HDB is also launching more BTO flats.
More supply means buyers have more choices.
And when buyers have more choices, sellers have less bargaining power.
In my opinion, this isnât just a one-quarter story.
Weâre entering a period where buyers will gradually have more negotiating power.
So if youâre a seller, donât expect the same market we saw during Covid, where buyers were willing to pay high Cash Over Valuation just to secure a flat.
Those days are becoming harder to find.
If youâre a buyer, the next few years could give you more opportunities to negotiate and buy at a better price.
So the real question isnât whether prices will drop.
The real question is:
If youâre planning to sell in the next 12 to 18 months, is it better to sell now, or wait until even more flats enter the market?
Every familyâs situation is different.
If youâre unsure which timing makes the most sense for you, feel free to reach out for a 1-to-1, no-obligation discussion.
Iâll help you work out the best strategy based on your own situation, not just the headlines.
đŹ WhatsApp: https://wa.me/6591887652
HDB resale price index dips for a second consecutive quarter, as competition from BTO launches, economic uncertainty and a softer job market weigh on buyers.