06/15/2026
Keeping an eye on inflation, mortgage rates, and the housing market so you don’t have to. 🏡
Higher Inflation
Mortgage markets remained highly sensitive to movements in energy prices this week. While the latest inflation reports reflected the impact of rising oil costs, investors largely anticipated the increase, and the reaction was minor. Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most closely watched inflation indicators, showed that prices rose 0.5% in May from the previous month, matching expectations. CPI was 4.2% higher than a year ago, up substantially from an annual rate of 3.8% last month to the highest level since April 2023. Of note, the annual increase in average hourly earnings in May was 3.4%, meaning that wage gains are no longer keeping pace with inflation.
To reduce short-term volatility and get a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends, investors look at core CPI, which excludes food and energy. In May, Core CPI was 2.9% higher than a year ago, up from 2.8% last month and the highest level since September 2025. Shelter (housing) costs were up 3.4% on an annual basis and continue to be a primary reason why bringing inflation down to the 2% target of the Fed remains challenging.
Looking ahead, attention will remain fixed on the conflict in the Middle East. In addition, the next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in rates is expected, and investors will be closely analyzing the commentary for clues regarding future policy adjustments. For economic data, Housing Starts and Import Prices will come out on Tuesday. Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of the economy. Mortgage markets will be closed on Friday for Juneteenth.
