10/06/2026
Latest from the Climate Prediction Center and what it means for property owners in Southern California.
Yes - Southern California is officially in El Niño, and this one could be unusually strong. From what I’m reading we should separate the warm weather we are experiencing now from what El Niño is likely to do to our winter.
NOAA says El Niño is strengthening and puts the chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter above 90%. More remarkable, NOAA currently gives about a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 ocean-temperature signal reaches “historic” strength, exceeding previous events in its record by its current metric. 
Is our warm October weather because of El Niño?
Partly, but not entirely. El Niño changes the large-scale Pacific circulation, so it can contribute to warmer conditions along the West Coast. However, individual Southern California heat spells are usually driven more directly by things like offshore flow, high pressure, Santa Ana conditions and the position of the jet stream.
In fact, NOAA’s October–December outlook currently favors above-normal temperatures across most of the West, including Southern California. So the warmth we’re seeing isn’t inconsistent with El Niño at all. 
What I think this means for Southern California / Orange County / Yorba Linda / Anaheim Hills
This is where it gets interesting. NOAA’s current seasonal outlook is leaning wetter than normal for Southern California, and the wet signal strengthens as we get deeper into winter.
For December–February and January–March, NOAA currently has coastal California at roughly a 50–60% probability of above-normal precipitation. That’s a meaningful seasonal signal. NOAA specifically attributes much of it to the El Niño-enhanced subtropical jet and southern storm track. 
So for Yorba Linda, Anaheim Hills, and Orange County property owners, I’d prepare for a winter that looks something like this:
* October–November: Quite possibly warm and relatively quiet between occasional early storms.
* December: Storm pattern becomes more interesting, although it doesn’t necessarily turn wet immediately.
* January–March: This is the period I’d watch most closely for repeated Pacific storms and atmospheric-river events.
* Overall rainfall: I would currently lean toward above-average rainfall for the 2026–27 rainy season, potentially substantially above average if the Pacific storm track lines up favorably.
The important caveat is a strong El Niño does not guarantee a wet Southern California winter. It loads the dice. Where the jet stream and individual atmospheric rivers actually set up determines whether Orange County gets 120% of normal rainfall, 180%, or surprisingly little.
Given how strong this El Niño may become, though, I’d be more concerned about periods of too much rain than about another very dry winter at this point, especially January through March. Hillside drainage, gutters, roofs, slopes and properties in burn-scar or runoff-prone areas are worth preparing before the storm pattern establishes itself.
NOAA’s next ENSO update is October 8, and the next major seasonal outlook comes in mid-to-late October. Those should give us a noticeably better read on Southern California’s winter. 
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