06/04/2026
Real Estate Morning Update
Thursday, June 4, 2026
Jobs Report Strategy and a Look at the Demand for Real Estate
Oil prices and yields are lower this morning after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. Shortly after the announcement, there were reports of some attacks still ongoing.
We have seen something similar between the US and Iran with the ceasefire in place. On that note, President Trump was asked to define ceasefire. Trump said in that part of the world, it’s defined as “shooting in a more moderate manner.”
The reason Iran stopped peace deal negotiations with the US was the attacks from Israel on Lebanon. Now there appears to be a ceasefire in place, now would be the time to put a resolution together. Trump said negotiations between the United States and Iran are going well and a finalized deal might happen sometime during the weekend… or it may not. We have heard this story many times before, but this is the latest, to which the markets are reacting.
A Look at the Real Estate Market
The media always make a big deal over things like the median listing price and days on market, but a look at the economic charts shows it’s been very stable and normal. Give me a call. Let’s set up a meeting to go over your specific situation, circumstances, community, neighborhood, and house. So we can develop a plan and strategy to best serve your real estate needs, goals, and dreams.
The median listing price has been following the cyclical seasonal pattern and remained in the same range since 2022, after climbing for many years. This shows some stability and likely, if it isn’t already evident, the fact affordability has become an issue.
Are homes sitting longer? A look at the data shows how very stable days on market has been over the last several years, following a normal seasonal pattern after COVID. Locally here is Southern California, especially in North Orange County, turnkey houses with all the details taken care of before listing are selling the fastest, for the highest price with the best terms. The less turnkey, the more details left untouched gives the buyer more leverage to negotiate price and terms.
Inventory levels: 35 states have inventory levels below where they were pre-pandemic, while 16 (including Washington, D.C.) have inventory levels above pre-pandemic levels. It's not surprising many of the states with inventory levels still significantly below pre-pandemic norms, particularly in the Northeast, are also experiencing the strongest home price appreciation. Which makes sense because while actual supply and demand curves are usually not straight lines, the key idea is price adjusts until quantity supplied equals quantity demanded.
There has been a ton of migration to Texas and Florida, as well as the Carolinas and Georgia, which are some of the areas where there is move inventory than pre-pandemic. The migration will eat into some of the excess inventory and cause some increased demand. Here in Southern California we continues to gain people from international migration and births, which partially offsets those losses of more people still leaving California for other states. Depends which numbers you look at, essentially California population has been flat for the last 5 years. So the demand level for housing hasn’t changed, but the demographic of those purchasing homes has.
Employment Data
Revelio Labs released their private payroll data, showing that there were 124,000 jobs created in May. This was double what was seen in April and continues on the theme that job growth is trending higher, as seen in yesterday’s ADP figure.
As seen in other labor reports, most of the jobs continue to come from Healthcare and Social assistance, which added 42,000 jobs. Public Administration also saw a big jump of 48,000 jobs…both of these sectors combined accounted for 2/3 of the job growth and are not economically sensitive.
Challenger showed 97,000 job cuts in May, up 16% from April. Not surprisingly, the main reason for cuts was AI for the third straight month, accounting for almost 40,000 cuts.
Hiring plans did pick up to almost 20,000 and year to date is 80,000, similar to what we saw at this point YTD in 2025.
Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, rose 13,000 to 225,000, which was hotter than estimates of 213,000. This figure still remains low, but is at the highest level since February.
Clearly, the increase in job cuts seen in the Challenger report are not showing up within claims, but that may be due to people entering the gig economy as opposed to collecting benefits.
Continuing claims, or those who continue to stay on benefits after their initial claim, remained around 1.78M.
Jobs Report Strategy
Tomorrow’s BLS Jobs Report is very difficult to handicap. They have been extremely unreliable and the market has almost started to take their report with a grain of salt.
With that being said, ADP and Revelio are showing some rebounds in job growth. The previous BLS Jobs Report showed 115,000 jobs created in April, with market expectations set lower at 85,000 for May.
All signs are pointing to a stronger than expected BLS figure, but it’s hard to know which way their report will go. But looking at the charts, there is definitely more risk to the downside than upside potential.
So what does all this mean to you and your specific real estate needs, goals, and dreams 🏡 Please send Tony Janowicz Real Estate and Investment Group DRE # 02116340 NMLS # 2687638 a direct message or call/text 714-269-3691, because the team and I would love ❤️ to continue the conversation and help you too 💯 buy, sell, or invest in real estate for the best price 💵 with the best terms 📑 For more information check out our website https://TonyJanoREIG.com/ with more details about all our services 🤩
