09/08/2026
📉 Oil Is Doing the Damage. Friday's CPI Could Finish the Job.
Mortgage bonds opened Tuesday strong and gave it all back, closing about 12 basis points lower. Where things stand:
✅ UMBS 5.5 finished at 98.69
✅ 10-year yield closed at 4.79%, still under the 4.82% ceiling
✅ Middle East tension is pushing oil toward $100 a barrel
✅ Friday's CPI is expected to jump well past last month's 0.1%
✅ Top-tier 30-year fixed near 6.89%, just under the highest mark since June 2025
Higher oil feeds inflation, and inflation is what bonds fear most. The risk this week tilts toward higher rates, not lower ones. 🛢️
Waiting for a better number is only a strategy if you have a plan for the number you actually get.
Have your next step mapped out before Friday. Send us a message and we will walk you through it. 📩
Not a rate quote or offer. Your rate will vary and not all borrowers qualify.