10/14/2024
🔍 Multifamily Loan Delinquencies: A Challenge and an Opportunity
For the past few years, multifamily CMBS loan delinquencies have been prevalent, with the overall delinquency rate having increased to 5.70% in September of 2024, and the multifamily delinquency rate reaching a three year high of 3.33% (Trepp 2024). The above statistics can mainly be attributed to value-add investors that overpaid for their properties, took out floating rate loans, and assumed strong rent growth and low interest rates would drive returns, when in fact their projects failed to meet financial projections (Gose 2024).
📉 But there’s a silver lining.
With interest rates having been cut recently, and expectations of future rate cuts to happen relatively soon after, this presents multifamily investors with an opportunity. Many delinquencies ended up as defaults, with properties finding themselves as foreclosed upon or real estate owned (REO), owned by lenders and not yet having sold during auction. As of August, delinquent CMBS loans related to foreclosure and REO account for 43% of all delinquent CMBS loans, meaning the lender has the right to take possession of those respective properties (Rosin 2024). Prior to foreclosure, most of these defaults are either term defaults or maturity defaults (Janover 2023). Term defaults are considered the most common, where the borrower cannot make their debt service payments. Maturity defaults are where the borrower cannot refinance the loan at maturity, unable to make the balloon payment.
Opportunity for multifamily investors lie in such defaulted properties. With future rate cuts on the way, and eventual cap rate compression as a result, multifamily investors can purchase foreclosed properties from lenders at a competitive basis. With a plan to strengthen the fundamentals of the property and drive NOI growth, investors can choose to purchase these properties now, with their debt at a higher rate, and in the future have the option to refinance once rates have been lowered further. The lower price of the property, if purchased earlier, is expected to offset the higher debt service payments before future rate cuts.
💡 Interested in exploring distressed property opportunities?
Of course there is risk in this strategy, with potential liens on the property or if the property requires extensive repairs. However, with strong due diligence and underwriting, real opportunities are presenting themselves to multifamily investors. To identify such opportunities, and to facilitate the closing, contact Tranquilium for buyer representation services.
Ryan Housekeeper