08/16/2021
The NVAR Mid-Year Forecast was published on 08/10/2021 and the conclusions are shown below. The authors are:
Dr. Terry Clower and Dr. Keith Waters
George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis
Conclusion
Overall, the NVAR market forecast team anticipates that the median price of sold homes in all jurisdictions and among all home types will continue to increase but at a more modest pace for the remainder of 2021. The number of closed sales will also continue to climb, meaning continued positive economic impact flowing from our region’s housing market. We will continue to see divergence in trend lines for active listings across housing types with condos inventories stabilizing but at higher levels than seen in recent years. Inventory trends for townhomes is mixed among geographies but is generally anticipated to contract through the end of the year. Finally, the forecast group anticipates that the number of active listings of single-family homes in the NVAR region will continue to decline through the end of the year. With sales levels expected to be stable, this suggests that competition among single-family buyers will persist and prices will continue to rise. Pricing for condos is less certain, but we see little to suggest any enduring market weakness in multi-family properties.
Through the remainder of the year, the CRA/NVAR forecast team notes several effects that are likely to impact the housing market in various ways. Above all is the course of the pandemic and its impacts on work-from-home and public schools. More subtly, the pent-up demand for travel after a year of staying at home has likely slowed the pace of buying and selling during summer vacation season. There may be an unexpected increase in activity if would-be buyers and sellers return from vacation ready to jump into the housing market. Another market factor we will monitor is that households who refinanced or remodeled during the pandemic are likely to hold onto their properties longer, which could depress listings. While there remains much uncertainty about the post-COVID economy in Northern Virginia, the housing market overall remains very strong and will continue to be a major contribution to regional economic resilience.
