02/16/2026
Four things you might not expect me to say about the DC housing market this year đ
1. January might have been the bottom.
Yes, you read that right. Closed sales were down 10% year over year and hit the lowest January level on record. That sounds dramatic. But hereâs the twist: pending contracts actually rose 2%.
That is the first increase since May. When contracts start rising before closings do, it is often an early signal that momentum is shifting.
2. Buyers have more power than they have had in years.
Inventory is up 18% compared to last January.
That means more options. More time to think.
More room to negotiate.
We have not been able to say that in a while.
It does not mean it is a âbuyerâs marketâ across the board, but it does mean leverage looks different than it did in the frenzy years of COVID.
2. Rates easing could wake up demand.
Mortgage rates have come down from their 2025 peaks. When rates stabilize or dip, even slightly, we often see buyers reenter who have been waiting on the sidelines. That 2% bump in contracts may be the first ripple of that shift.
4. Prices are still the wild card.
The regional median price is up 4.8% year over year to $585,000.
In DC and Arlington, prices jumped 18% and 15%.
That kind of appreciation keeps some buyers cautious.
If prices continue climbing quickly, we could see hesitation. If they level out, we could see activity accelerate.
So what are we forecasting?
A busier spring than January suggests.
More inventory plus slightly better rates plus cautious optimism usually equals opportunity for people who are prepared.
If you are in DC, Maryland, or Northern Virginia and wondering how this plays out for your price point and neighborhood, reach out. Weâre happy to have a conversation whether youâre looking to buy, sell or both!
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