08/26/2024
Here an Austin real estate market update and some context.
- The average annual appreciation for residential homes sold through the Austin MLS from 2014 to Dec 2019 was approximately 5.40%. I've always told investors to assume 4.5% annually, so Austin was chugging along very steady, better than expected.
- If the pre-COVID appreciation trend of 5.40% had continued uninterrupted, the projected average home sales value in July 2024 would be approximately $408,955.
- The actual YTD 2024 average is $443,400, indicating a higher-than-expected value compared to the pre-COVID trend. So, as sluggish as the market is, the homes that close are still above the expected 10 year trend.
If you purchased pre-covid and are selling now, you are better positioned from an equity standpoint than you would have been had the pandemic never happened.
The average annual appreciation from January 2020 through YTD 2024 has been approximately 8.00%. 2020-2022 we up markets, and mid-2022 through YTD has been a correction period.
Once the red trend line and the green touch again, pricing will have normalize for pre-2020 buyers wishing to sell.
If you bought during the June 2020-May 2022 peak , you may still be under water on what you paid vs today's value. But you have a super low interest rate.
I thought 2024 had a good chance of being a recovery year, now I think things are looking up for 2025. Especially if interest rates get back down into the 5s.
Finally, if you're a buyer still looking, you're operating under the new Realtor commission rules. If you're looking to make a good buy in the still-soft market buyer's market in Austin, and your Realtor is not a strong negotiator, indicated by their hand wringing over which homes to show you, and advising you against seeing certain homes, the you have a BAD Realtor.
My condolences. Tell them you want to see EVERY home and make the offer YOU WANT no matter what. If they blink, fire them. You can do that. They are not the strong advocate that you need, and they don't have the sales skills you deserve.