01/16/2026
Mr. Dream Home’s monthly state of the (real estate) Union address:
Let's start with unemployment. I've mentioned before that this economic downturn is the strangest I've seen. In over 25 years of working in real estate, I've never observed the market so soft yet still fairly resilient. Although prices are down 15-30% from the peak in many areas, they remain significantly higher than in 2020. I believe two main factors have prevented a larger real estate sell-off: first, there's been no catalyst for widespread panic. Unemployment is projected to peak at 4.8% in the first quarter of 2026, so most people still have jobs, and those with jobs are unlikely to panic sell. Second, about 51.5% of homeowners (according to Google) have mortgage rates below 4%, making them hesitant to sell. Selling and buying would mean higher prices and interest rates for most. This reluctance is understandable for many homeowners. The number of sales remains near the lowest level since the mid-1990s, which is quite remarkable given population growth and the total housing stock, and it is still below the 2008 real estate crash level. Despite all this, prices have stayed relatively stable.
With unemployment peaking in the first quarter of 2026, a full recovery this year seems unlikely. However, the signs are encouraging as we approach recovery. For Austin to emerge from the downturn, the tech sector needs to resume hiring. Given the current low inventory—less than a 6-month supply—and demand at its lowest since the mid-1990s, prices are likely to increase rapidly once recovery begins. I wouldn’t be surprised if prices rise by 15-30% within a year at the start of the recovery. If demand returns to normal levels, inventory will disappear immediately, and homeowners with low mortgage rates and lower purchase prices will likely hesitate to sell, making it difficult to find additional inventory.
The Trump administration appears committed to reducing the Fed rate and mortgage rates. Last week, ending 1/16, mortgage rates dropped to 6.04%, the lowest in years. This decline is largely due to the executive order instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS (mortgage-backed securities). Increased demand for MBS tends to lower yields, thus decreasing mortgage rates. Additionally, Trump may pursue other strategies, such as reducing the fees lenders pay to Fannie Mae, which could further decrease mortgage interest rates.
What advice do I have for buying and selling? First, if you don’t NEED to sell, I recommend waiting. I believe we are 1 to 2 years away from a major purchase surge, which will likely lead to short-term price increases followed by stabilization. If you have extra money, it could still be a good time to buy. However, plan to put substantial down payments or pay cash to ensure positive cash flow. Even duplexes often struggle to generate positive cash flow in Austin. Nevertheless, I strongly believe property values will rise significantly in the next two years, so if you’re considering purchasing more investment property, now is the time.
