02/11/2026
What’s going on with rates… and will a new Fed Chair drop them?
You may be hearing people say that when a new person takes over at the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates are going to fall.
It sounds nice.
But it’s not that simple.
Even if the new chair wants to cut rates, mortgage pricing usually moves before the Fed acts. Investors try to predict the future. When they believe cuts are coming, they adjust right away.
So by the time the Fed actually announces anything, the change has often already happened.
We saw this not long ago. Mortgage rates were at their best levels before the Fed began cutting. Afterward, rates moved up.
What is happening right now?
This week, rates improved because new job reports hinted the labor market may be cooling. Slower economic growth can help bonds, and that can help mortgage pricing.
What happens from here?
The next big moment is the upcoming monthly jobs report.
~If it shows weakness → rates could continue to improve.
~If it’s about what experts expect → we may lose some of this week’s progress.
~If it’s strong → rates likely head higher.
So will the new Fed Chair bring lower rates?
Maybe.
Maybe not.
If it were guaranteed, markets would already have pushed rates down.
The takeaway:
Changes in leadership make headlines.
Economic data is what really moves mortgage rates.
Anyone waiting for a sure thing may be waiting a long time.
Contact me if you are considering making your move in 2026. There is never any obligation. Gathering the current data and market information will always give you confidence in making the best decision for you!
