12/13/2023
*Lexington County Residents*
If you haven’t been paying attention to the County Council’s quest to pull the e-brake on development, you may want to start. I know a lot of people probably like the idea, but the question is, what is it going to cost to do so?
A little on the history: After the unveiling of three apartment complexes with affordable housing in the Hendrix Crossing area of Lexington, many nearby residents took their concerns up with the council. A moratorium on development was put in place back in 2019 to give the council time to figure out what to do. One of their actions I applaud was the hiring of Clarion Associates, a national land-use consulting firm, to develop a long-term comprehensive plan for growth and development in the county. The plan was unanimously adopted by the council in June 2022. I was pleased the council hired professionals in their field, who have studied and have experience in planning. We’re not the first area to experience growth and there are lessons learned of actions that should or should not be taken; obviously, we would not expect our council members to have experience in this area.
Two main topics of concern for me are Concurrency and Density
“Concurrency” refers to Ordinances 23-14 and 23-15 that would require approval from the local fire, police, EMS, school district, and sanitation services prior to a residential development approval. Not a recommendation in the comprehensive plan, but more a “shoot from the hip” approach from the council. At first glance it may sound like a logical idea, but when you peel back the layers on the onion a bit it has the potential to get very ugly. If these services are not already at capacity, eventually they will be. The mere existence of this ordinance is enough to scare off some developers due to the uncertainty of being approved after investing tens of thousands of dollars. Ultimately, these ordinances have the potential to stop residential development. Many may want this like I want chocolate cake; tastes great but is terrible for me. According to the US Census Bureau, 13,570 people in Lexington County claim Construction as their occupation. What happens to these jobs when we reduce, possibly significantly, new home construction? What happens to the spouses and children that rely on this income? What’s the fallout for everyone else? How much will land value drop when developers won’t buy it? How much will home prices rise when there aren’t new ones being built to absorb the demand? You, I, nor the council know the answer to these questions, and that’s frightening. The reality is, there are many other options the council could take if they wanted to continue developing in a responsible manner, like following the plan. No matter how much we may think it’s what we want, is stopping development worth the cost of our county residents, friends, family, and neighbors losing their jobs?
Density, being how many dwellings permitted per acre, seems to be a popular approach to controlling growth. The comprehensive plan (remember developed by professionals and adopted by the council) sets density guidelines for areas of the county to appropriately control growth. The council, however, seems to keep resorting to decreasing density in broad sweeps. The problem here is the more you grow, the more dense areas you will need to absorb the demand. If you do not absorb the demand, home prices will rise due to lack of supply. Also, decreasing density creates what’s known as “Sprawl.” Every professional planner will likely tell you sprawl is a bad thing. Our own comprehensive plan even states “discourage sprawling development patterns.” For one, it eats up the county’s most valuable resource, land. Two, it spreads everyone out requiring more resources to provide adequate police, fire, EMS, and sanitation. Three, it increases dependency on the automobile, increases traffic county-wide, demands more improvement in roads, and forces people to spend more time in their car rather than doing things that improve their quality of life.
To wrap this up, I’ve mentioned increasing home prices a few times already. Right now, the median (middle) home price in Lexington County is $277,000. The annual household income needed to buy this house with a conventional loan is $51,650. Given Lexington County income, 36% of the county households cannot afford to buy a house at the median price, even if they have the down payment. 1 out of 3. If we suppress new construction and the overall supply, prices will rise more and even more people who already live here will not be able to afford a mid-level house. I was in Boise a few months back to look at development across the city, as it’s one of the fastest growing cities in the nation. People out of California and Washington are moving there in droves and the housing supply has had trouble keeping up with demand. A young couple on the plane from the area told me the same thing, they’ve lived there their whole lives, but can’t get out of their apartment due to the high home prices. If you haven’t already, we should all be wondering if our kids will be able to afford a house here in Lexington County.
I get many people do not like the subdivisions going in, but people want to move here this is simply supply and demand at work. It can be slowed or possibly stopped, but it won't be without consequences. Responsible growth is key, but suppressing the supply and taking away employment, in my opinion, is not responsible.
