06/04/2026
A lower rate will not fix a deal that was built too thin.
Everyone wants the Fed to make the model easier.
I get it. Debt cost matters. A move in rates can change proceeds, coverage, buyer psychology, exit value, and whether the lender conversation feels possible.
But if the deal only survives because the next rate move saves it, the capital stack was already weak.
That is the part people skip.
Cheaper debt is only one part of the test.
The question is whether the project can survive delay, lower proceeds, a slower exit, a reserve call, a cost miss, or a lender asking for more equity when the sponsor is already stretched.
If the answer is no, do not blame the Fed for exposing it.
The problem was in the structure.
Rates matter. They always have.
But a good capital plan has to work under stress. It has to explain who signs, who funds overruns, who answers the capital call, what happens at maturity, and whether the exit still works if the market is less friendly than the first model assumed.
Waiting can be a strategy.
Waiting because the deal cannot breathe at today's numbers is usually just hope with a spreadsheet attached.