Katie Mundell - Keller Williams

10/06/2022

HARBORSIDE is Pending! Please reach out to me if you need help finding your new home or listing your home for sale. Learn the difference a PROFESSIONAL real estate agent can make in your real estate transaction.

09/23/2022

HARBORSIDE, a distinctive custom-built 2015 home on Drayton Harbor in Blaine, WA is listed for sale for $975,000. Please come to an Open House on Sunday, 9/25 from 2-5PM. https://harborsideshores.com/

8996 Dearborn Ave. Blaine, WA

08/23/2022

Nationwide: What is Really Happening in the Real Estate Market?

With headlines like "Home sales fall for 5th month as median prices hit record high", we don't know what to expect in the coming months. The answer is a bit complicated, and because of that, we won't really know for certain until more time passes under the current conditions. At times in the stock market, investors react emotionally to shifts in the stock market which morphs a small market adjustment into a major short-term shift, which is often corrected as investors realize that the shift was based more on emotion, than a change in market factors. The same can be true in the real estate market: right now, buyers' and sellers' concerns regarding how rising interest rates will change the market is creating a difficult to define shift in the market. We are feeling some of that uncertainty in the way that analysts' views on where interest rates will be by the end of the year is varied. On the one hand, buying and/or selling a home is a much larger commitment than buying/or selling a stock(s); on the other hand, we buy homes we want to live in, not just as an investment.

So let's look at some facts on the national level:

1. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that home sales of existing homes fell 5.4% between May and June of this year, which is 14.2% below home sales a year ago.

2. Median prices rose to $416,000. This is a 13.4% increase over June of 2021.

3. Inventory of homes for sale have steadily increased nationwide; 1.26 million homes were sale the end of June, which is a 3-month supply of homes, at the current rates of home sales. This is likely a sign that more buyers are pulling back from the market, according to experts.

4. Average days on market has actually adjusted slightly downward to 14; this is the fewest number days since NAR started tracking days on market in 2011.

Check out my blog post for NAR's take:

https://katiemundell.com/real-estate-blog/f/nationwide-what-is-really-happening-in-the-real-estate-market-1?fbclid=IwAR10VOoCTSDfeQJ9JRXgnvvjrX7hDtOWn1KL8sWpDMYGFuoyrcxcTxYtYWw

With headlines like "Home sales fall for 5th month as median prices hit record high", we don't know what to expect in the coming months. The answer is a bit complicated, and because of that, we won't really know for cert...

08/23/2022

10 Housing Markets Likely to be Hurt by a Recession
As Inman News reports, "With inflation breaking 40-year highs, interest rates poised to reach seven percent by year’s end, mortgage demand hitting a 22-year low,
and home sales sliding to pre-pandemic lows, it’s likely a downturn — major or minor — is on the way. “Recession fears are escalating, mostly because the Fed has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation and cool consumer demand. Higher interest rates led to surging mortgage rates, which have already cooled down the housing market,” Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari said in the brokerage’s latest market report on Tuesday."

My caveat to homeowner fears about what this means for them is that most homeowners have record-breaking home equity, which insulates them from fears that they won't be able to sell their current home and pocket money. It's also important to remember that even if you recently purchased in one of these more at-risk cities is to remember that buying a home should not be a short-term investment. Just like in the stock market, "playing" the real estate market for short-term gains is risky. And also, a house is a home - your place of shelter.

Whether it's considered a recession or merely an economic downturn, some housing markets will experience more downturn than others. Redfin analyzed the top 98 US markets, and determined that California and Florida have the most to lose, based on home-price growth trends and average debt-to-income ratio, as well as home-price volatility. Riverside, CA in particular has the highest risk (score 84 out of a possible 100). This is because buyers from areas like Los Angeles and Palm Springs purchasing their primary or secondary homes were attracted to Riverside's relatively low home prices, creating "highly volatile" home price growth. In other words, prices rose at unsustainable rates. This is particularly bad news for buyers who were looking to places like Riverside because they were having trouble affording a home.

Check out my blog post for the list of cities that are at highest risk:

As Inman News reports, "With inflation breaking 40-year highs, interest rates poised to reach seven percent by year’s end, mortgage demand hitting a 22-year low, and home sales sliding to pre-pandemic lows, it’s likely...

08/23/2022

While not at the same level of the all-time high in February of this year (9.7%), investor home sales growth was higher than non-investors, at 9.5%. This is roughly double the share of investor sales in 2014/2015. This market data is from home purchases by a corporation or company name, so it does not include individual investors who may purchase a home in their own name.

Realtor.com reported that investors are continuing to buy more homes than they sell. Although iBuyers are selling more than they are buying. Roughly 3/4 of these investors are cash buyers. This is not surprising, as a rise in mortgage interest rates may not be impacting these buyers as much as non-investors.

See my blog post for more data:

https://katiemundell.com/real-estate-blog/f/real-estate-investment-surge

While not at the same level of the all-time high in February of this year (9.7%), investor home sales growth was higher than non-investors, at 9.5%. This is roughly double the share of investor sales in 2014/2015. This m...

08/23/2022

Realtors Confidence Index

The Realtors Confidence Index provides insight on the national level for market activity, as reported by real estate agents. Here are some factoids from the latest index:

1. Median days on market was down from 17 days in June to 14 in July.

2. 88% of respondence reported properties selling in less than one month.

3. Homes listed received an average of 3.4 offers, down from 4.4 offers in June.

4. First-tie buyers represented 30% of buyers, up from 27% in June.

5. 25% of buyers were all-cash

The Realtors Confidence Index provides insight on the national level for market activity, as reported by real estate agents. Here are some factoids from the latest index:

08/23/2022

10 States With Homes That Are Slower to Sell

Tangerine.ca, an online bank, reported on states that experiencing longer days on the market as well as longer days until close.. Clearly Washington State is nowhere to be seen on this list! Even on the natinonal levevl, the median days on market was recently reported to be 16. Here are the slowest markets, starting with the slowest:

State: Average Days on Market + Average Days to Close = Total Time on Market

1. New York: 71.64 + 58.81 = 166.54

2. Hawaii: 69.66 + 49.16 = 118.82

3. New Jersey: 67.55 + 59.85 = 117.4

4. West Virginia: 70.12 + 43.32 = 113.44

5. North Dakota: 67.22 + 45.71 = 112.94

6. Maryland: 65.98 +44.04 = 110.02

7. Connecticut: 59.56 + 48.4 = 107.96

8. Mississippi: 68.32 + 37.03 = 105.35

9. Vermont: 49.67 + 54.15 = 103.81

10. Delaware: 57.82 + 45.18 = 103

According to Inman News, "In the report, a spokesperson for Tangerine.ca notes that homes in New York may be taking on an average more than two months to accept an offer “because sellers are holding out for the highest offer they can get,” or because “demand just isn’t as high as in some other states.”"

https://katiemundell.com/real-estate-blog/f/10-states-with-homes-that-are-slower-to-sell

Tangerine.ca, an online bank, reported on states that experiencing longer days on the market as well as longer days until close.. Clearly Washington State is nowhere to be seen on this list! Even on the natinonal levevl,...

08/23/2022

Pending Home Sales Decline

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released pending home sales figures, which have dropped 8.6% from May to June, and 20% from the same time period in 2021. Pending home sales were up .7% from April, after 6 months of pending home sale declines.

There are several variables impacting housing inventory, including high home prices, rising interest rates. Those interest rates may be preventing potential buyer from affording a new home; likewise, more homeowners are choosing to stay in their current home, to take advantage of their low mortgage interest rate. I expect that will mean more homeowners remodeling their homes, to make it work for their current needs, as oppose to selling and buying a better-suited home.

See my blog post for more detail:

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released pending home sales figures, which have dropped 8.6% from May to June, and 20% from the same time period in 2021. Pending home sales were up .7% from April, after 6 mont...

08/23/2022

Pending home sales climb in May following 6 months of declines

But the increase is very modest - a .7% increase; There is plenty of evidence that increased mortgage rates will transition the housing market out of a frenzied Seller's market. Between inflation and interest rates, Buyer's home-buying budgets are shrinking. George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement. “The result is softening housing demand, which comes at the same time as many homeowners are embracing the new normal and listing their homes for sale. In the process, housing markets are experiencing a familiar shift – With rising inventory and slowing sales, a growing share of homes lingers longer on listing portals, leading to price reductions. The return of these historical patterns is a welcome development for home shoppers who have been waiting for the window of buying opportunities to open wider.”

“Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition,” Yun said in a statement. “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.”

Inman News reported that "Regionally, results differed with sales rebounding in the Northeast and South while decreasing in the Midwest and West. Sales in the Northeast jumped 15.4 percent to 86.4 on the Pending Home Sales Index, while sales in the South increased 0.2 percent to 119.0 in May. Sales in the Northeast were still down 11.9 percent from a year ago however, while Southern sales were down 13.8 percent from 2021 levels.

The Midwest saw sales fall 1.7 to a 98.6 on the index, while the West fell 5.0 percent month over month to 81.6. Year over year, sales in the Midwest were down 8.8 percent, and sales in the West were down 19.8 percent from the previous year according to the NAR." This data is not surprising, given the cost of housing in the West compared to the Midwest.

https://katiemundell.com/real-estate-blog/f/pending-home-sales-climb-in-may-following-6-months-of-declines

But the increase is very modest - a .7% increase; There is plenty of evidence that increased mortgage rates will transition the housing market out of a frenzied Seller's market. Between inflation and interest rates, Buye...

08/23/2022

Realtors' Confidence Index - May 2022

See my blog post for an update on agent's insights into the market.

The National Association of Realtors' May 2022 Index has been released. Some highlights:

08/23/2022

Home Design Trends

Houzz Magazine's article describes 8 Home Design Trends on the Rise in 2022. Highlights:

1. Continued Focus on the Outdoors

2. Making an Entrance

3. Statement Lighting

4. Styles Defined

5. Midcentury Modern on the Mind

6. Barndo Homes

7. Maximizing Space

8. Pandemic-Inspired Trends

Houzz Magazine's article describes 8 Home Design Trends on the Rise in 2022. Highlights:

08/23/2022

Housing Values Rapid Gain Due to Slow

As homeowners' budgets have declined with rising interest rates, Redfin argues that home price growth will slow in the coming year.* Real estate agents are already noticing a slowdown, with far less homes having more than a couple offers. No big surprise, but it will be interesting to see how home price inflation slows geographically. Will low inventory and pent-up demand mean homes will still sell for at or over asking in the Northwest, and in particular in desirable areas like Bellingham? This will be an interesting trend to watch, especially as late spring and early summer have brought new listing activity. Will Bellingham continue to rapidly absorb most new listings, especially if they are well-priced? Stay tuned...

* “When mortgage rates go up, buyers’ budgets go down,” Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr said in a statement. “And when buyers’ budgets go down, sellers have to meet buyers where they are. Budgets haven’t fallen from a year ago and we don’t expect home-sale prices to fall, either. But the fact that budget growth has slowed so significantly is one sign among many that home-price growth will continue to slow as the year goes on.”

As homeowners' budgets have declined with rising interest rates, Redfin argues that home price growth will slow in the coming year.* Real estate agents are already noticing a slowdown, with far less homes having more tha...