08/12/2024
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐ฎ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
Unfortunately our forecast for last week was correct, rates moved higher for the week after dropping more than expected when markets overreacted to the previous week's weak jobs data. The good news was that the moves higher weren't large and rates are still better than in July.
๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ'๐ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐
After moving higher last week, rates could settle down and even improve a little bit if this week's inflation data shows inflation is still cooling, because it would support the Fed cutting policy rates at the September meeting. Mortgage rates will move lower in anticipation of future Fed rate cuts.
๐ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Inflation data: Wholesale inflation data on Tuesday will have some effect on rates this week, but it is Wednesday's consumer inflation data that will cause the biggest moves. Consumer inflation is expected to be slightly higher month-to-month than last month's readings, but should still be showing year-over-year inflation at a slower pace which would help mortgage rates move at least slightly lower.
- Fed rate cuts: Markets are now pricing in smaller policy rate cuts to start in September, after overreacting the previous week.