USIG Real Estate Investment Group

09/24/2026

CRE is becoming a property-by-property market.

On the office side, approximately $289 billion of office loans are scheduled to mature through 2028 across roughly 14,000 properties.

At the same time, office CMBS delinquencies reached 12% in August, while several major markets continue to carry vacancy rates above 20%.

The problem isn’t simply that the properties are “bad.”

The problem is the collision of:

• Lower property values
• Higher borrowing costs
• Weaker occupancy
• Maturing debt
• Lower refinancing proceeds

A property that worked financially when the original loan was made may not work under today’s capital structure.

Now look at retail.

CRE Daily reports that core retail sales increased 1.2% in August, up 5.6% year over year, while store-based sales increased 0.6%. Preliminary Q3 data also showed positive retail absorption.

So what should CRE professionals take from this?

Don’t underwrite the headline. Underwrite the asset.

“Office is distressed.”

“Retail is strong.”

Both statements can be misleading.

The real questions are:

→ What is the property’s current NOI?

→ What happens to DSCR when the loan reprices?

→ What is the current LTV based on today’s value?

→ What happens under a 200-basis-point rate shock?

→ How much occupancy can the property lose before breaking even?

→ What does the debt maturity actually require?

→ And most importantly: Does the capital structure still work?

This is why I believe the next phase of CRE will reward better underwriting, better data, and faster decision-making more than broad market narratives.

The market isn’t one story.

Every property has its own story.

And the numbers need to tell you what that story is.

Brenda Le Jones
USIG | Commercial Real Estate • Mortgage • Investment Advisory

08/19/2026

Is manual underwriting holding your deals back? ⌛ We're showing you exactly how we use AI to automate commercial property analysis for faster, more accurate investment decisions. Stop crunching numbers and start closing deals. Watch how it works below!

08/18/2026

Are you analyzing your rental property like an investor or simply calculating the mortgage payment?

In this first episode of my From Residential Agent to Investment Advisor series, I break down 7 commercial real estate techniques that residential investors and Realtors can use to evaluate rental properties more intelligently.

Are you analyzing your rental property like an investor or simply c...

08/12/2026

Every investment is different.

Whether you prefer to analyze the financing yourself or would like an experienced advisor to review the capital structure with you, Financing Analysis gives you the flexibility to choose the level of support that’s right for your deal.

08/12/2026

A quick resource for my fellow real estate, mortgage, and investment professionals.

We’ve recently launched a set of practical real estate and financing analysis tools, and I’d like to invite the professional community here to try them.

Rather than tell you which one you need, have a look at and explore whatever fits the way you work.

The tools are designed to help with areas such as:

Property analysis • Commercial underwriting • Financing analysis • Comparing loan structures • Investment decision support

They’re free to try, and we’d genuinely appreciate feedback from people actually working in the industry.

If you find something useful and want to incorporate it into your workflow, we can also help you register and personalize the experience.

And if you’re not the person who needs it, perhaps an investor, broker, mortgage professional, or colleague in your network is. Please feel free to share it.

We’re simply excited about what we’ve been developing and happy to make these resources available to the professional community.

Better analysis. Better-informed decisions.

Real estate professionals don’t need another generic calculator. Th...

08/12/2026

The office market isn’t recovering evenly and that may be where the opportunity is.

San Francisco is giving investors an interesting lesson right now.

According to JLL data reported by CRE Daily, AI companies now occupy roughly 8.5 million square feet about 10% of San Francisco’s office inventory. Since the beginning of 2026 alone, the sector has committed to another 2.4 million square feet.

Yet the city’s overall office vacancy remains around 32%.

Those two numbers sitting next to each other tell an important story:

A market can look weak at the macro level while certain assets are quietly becoming much stronger.

AI companies are competing for quality office space, and some demand is expanding into R&D-oriented properties as robotics and physical AI companies require different types of facilities.

Recent leasing activity elsewhere also supports the broader flight-to-quality/tech-demand theme, including Amazon renewing and slightly expanding roughly 300,000 SF in downtown San Francisco while pursuing additional space for its robotics operations. (⁠San Francisco Chronicle)

For investors, this is why I wouldn’t evaluate office or any CRE sector based solely on a headline vacancy number.

Look deeper:

• Who actually wants the space?
• Which buildings are attracting them?
• What is happening to rents and concessions?
• Can the NOI support today’s debt?
• What happens under a downside scenario?
• Who will want this asset five years from now?

The opportunity isn’t necessarily in buying what everyone thinks is cheap. It’s identifying where demand is changing before that change is fully reflected in valuation.

And before committing capital, analyze both sides of the decision: the asset and the financing.

If you prefer to do that yourself, our Commercial Analysis and Financing Analysis tools can help you evaluate the opportunity and financing structure.

If you’d rather have another experienced set of eyes review it with you, we’re available for that as well.

08/08/2026

Residential and CRE financing analysis on the go. Test out the app and let us know what features you want to see next!

08/08/2026

Would you take on a $320k fixer-upper for a projected $640k value? Let's break down the real estate numbers.

08/08/2026