Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting

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Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting Principal-side real estate advisory, development, and insight from Daniel Kaufman — 25+ years, $2B+ in project value. kaufmanrealestateandconsulting.com

Serving developers, investors, and operators.

10/13/2026

I saw two headlines this week that do not quite agree with each other. First time buyers are negotiating harder than they have in years, according to a new Neighbors Bank survey. At the same time, the Mortgage Bankers Association now expects the 30 year mortgage rate to stay above 7 percent through the end of 2027.

Leverage in a negotiation only matters if you can still afford the payment once you win it. Right now that is only true for part of the market. I wrote more about what this K shaped moment means for buyers and builders in this week's newsletter.

10/12/2026

Co-living is growing fast, and the reasons are pretty relatable.

A new Harvard study found 49 percent of US renters, about 22.7 million households, are cost burdened right now. At the same time, more renters say they want real community where they live, not just a lease. Zillow found 43 percent of renters now prioritize that, up from 39 percent last year.

That is exactly why we built Convivium Living around shared spaces, real programming, and smart building tech from day one. Operators in this space report renters saving 40 to 50 percent compared to a typical apartment, while getting more of the connection they are actually looking for.

10/11/2026

Two land stories caught my eye this week. Virginia Beach is selling a 350 acre city owned golf course to a homebuilder for $17.9 million, with plans for 659 new homes. Meanwhile Massachusetts voters will decide next month whether to allow homes on smaller lots statewide.

Different scale, same lesson. We are not short on land in this country. We are short on land that is allowed to become housing. That is the fight worth watching, not the headline about lumber prices or labor costs.

10/10/2026

Something does not add up this week. Rents have been falling for three years, yet one in five working age renters was late or short on rent in 2025, the worst since this started being tracked in 2017. Middle income renters got hit hardest, with payment problems jumping 7.3 points to 21.6 percent.

Here is why. The apartment supply wave that pushed rents down is fading fast. Deliveries are down 46 percent from their 2024 peak, and nothing at today's borrowing costs is lined up to replace that supply.

A household earning $100,000 can still afford most rentals out there. A renter making about $58,000 can afford roughly a third of them. That gap, not the national rent average, is what I am watching heading into next year.

10/09/2026

I'll be speaking at the Global Family Office Investment Summit in Miami on October 15 and 16.

A new Citi Wealth survey of about 350 family offices across more than 40 countries found that direct real estate makes up 13 percent of the average North American family office portfolio, the highest of any region, and nearly a third plan to grow that share.

Family office capital can afford to be patient, and patience is exactly what it takes to build workforce housing instead of chasing the next quarter. That is the case I am making in Miami.

10/08/2026

We just gave names to the different ways we build.

Eight new brands under Kaufman & Company: Haven for attainable housing, Foundry for workforce housing, Trellis for townhomes and small multifamily, Convivium for co living, Everwell for active adult living, District for mixed use, Weekender for hospitality, and ZeroPoint for AI infrastructure.

Same ten operating companies doing the work. Same discipline. Just a clearer answer about what you are getting. Trellis already has a good example, Greenview Residences in Fredericksburg, Virginia, delivered three months early and six percent under budget.

Rollout continues over the next year across our portfolio in 24 states.

10/07/2026

Deloitte just surveyed 950 commercial real estate executives, and housing came back as the most eager sector to sell in the next year, more than office, industrial, retail, or data centers. That is surprising, because the capital markets data says multifamily already turned the corner.

Apartment values are still 22.3 percent below their July 2022 peak, but that peak was a zero rate bubble. Compare today to February 2020 instead, before any of that distortion, and values are up 7.0 percent. Cap rate spreads have also narrowed sharply this year, which only happens when investors believe the risk has already come down.

Sentiment just lags the data. If you are sitting on multifamily that cash flows and thinking about selling because of a 2022 number, run the 2020 comparison first.

10/06/2026

Realtor.com's newest housing report shows something interesting. As Boomers age out of their homes over the next decade, about 13.9 million homes get freed up, but only about 38,000 a year are the small, affordable starter homes we actually need. Most of what comes back is large, move up housing, often in places people are leaving.

That is exactly why we keep building workforce and build-to-rent housing instead of chasing the move up market. The real shortage is at the entry level, and the data backs it up.

10/05/2026

Something I am proud to be building: DEK Builds, a platform focused on ski resorts and mountain communities across the US and Canada.

Ski towns are busier than ever. Two of the three best visitation seasons on record just happened, and home prices in mountain resort towns have outpaced the national market. But plenty of good mountains, with real terrain and real potential, have been left behind by consolidation, deferred maintenance, or owners who ran out of capital.

That is exactly the gap we are going after: operating resorts that need capital, distressed assets ready for a reopening, and land with entitlements already in place.

10/04/2026

The jobs report this week showed just 29,000 new jobs added in September, about a third of what was expected. But the number that actually hit buyers was the mortgage rate, which jumped from 6.66% to 7.28% in about a month.

On a $400,000 loan, that is an extra $166 a month in principal and interest. Put another way, a buyer who could afford $400,000 in early September can now only borrow about $354,000 at the same payment. That is $46,000 of buying power gone, and no listing prices even moved.

The bright spot: construction, health care, and manufacturing are still adding jobs. Those are the markets I am watching for workforce housing demand.

More in this week's newsletter, link in the comments.

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90212

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