09/23/2026
Last week’s rate hike did not break the deals under pressure this year. They were broken at acquisition, when the business plan assumed cheaper permanent debt would be waiting at maturity.
About $875 billion in commercial mortgages comes due in 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Every one of those loans meets the same three variables on maturity day, and the borrower controls none of them.
The rate. It is whatever the market charges that week, not what the model assumed at purchase.
The lender. Appetite for a property type, a sponsor, or a loan size can tighten between origination and maturity.
The appraisal. A lower value means a smaller new loan, and the gap has to be covered with cash or a sale.
Underwriting that treats any of these as a known input is a forecast. The discipline is in the structure: debt sized so the property carries it at whatever rate shows up, and reserves deep enough that a maturity date never forces a sale.
Before committing capital to any operator, ask one question: what happens to this deal if it has to refinance at today’s rates?
Save this for your next deal review, or send it to someone evaluating a real estate investment right now.