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9/24/26Bond pricing and Treasury yields are relatively flat in early trading following yesterday’s selloff.The U.S. 10-y...
09/24/2026

9/24/26

Bond pricing and Treasury yields are relatively flat in early trading following yesterday’s selloff.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 5.10%, below the opening level near 5.116%.

Yields remain near multidecade highs as stronger economic data and elevated oil prices continue to pressure inflation and increase expectations for additional Fed hikes.

Initial jobless claims came in at 197K, below the 201K forecast.

New Home Sales jumped to 684K, well above the 616K forecast, signaling stronger housing demand.

Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment are due tomorrow, along with Fed speakers John Williams and Beth Hammack.

9/23/26Bond yields moved higher this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 2 basis points to 4.98% as oil prices i...
09/23/2026

9/23/26

Bond yields moved higher this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 2 basis points to 4.98% as oil prices increased following five consecutive days of declines.

Brent crude advanced 1.15% to over $100 a barrel.

Geopolitics remain in focus, with markets looking for a potential resolution in the Middle East as a risk-on catalyst after President Trump indicated progress in U.S. talks with Iran.

However, tensions remain elevated, as the UK reported an attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

The rest of the week is light on notable economic data, with weekly jobless claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

9/22/26Bond yields fell this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points to 4.93%.Hopes for diplomatic ...
09/22/2026

9/22/26

Bond yields fell this morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points to 4.93%.

Hopes for diplomatic efforts to restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, with Brent falling below $100 a barrel.

The move eased inflation concerns and left stocks near their all-time highs.

President Trump has told advisers he would like to meet with Iranian officials who are in New York for the U.N. General Assembly, if conditions are right.

Reports also emerged that Iran would consider reopening the Strait if the naval blockade is lifted.

9/21/26The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.967%, below opening levels near 5%.There are no major economic rel...
09/22/2026

9/21/26

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 4.967%, below opening levels near 5%.

There are no major economic releases this morning, but continued conflict in the Middle East over the weekend grabbed headlines.

The U.S. issued travel warnings to American citizens for a list of Middle Eastern countries.

Trump also left Camp David early to return to Washington over the weekend, joining other officials.

The U.N. General Assembly will meet in New York this week, and many are hopeful there could be additional sideline discussions regarding the region.

Oil prices have dipped slightly on these hopes, with prices holding around $97 a barrel.

This week is relatively light for economic releases. Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be released Wednesday, followed by New Home Sales, Durable Goods, and Consumer Sentiment on Thursday and Friday.

9/18/26Bond pricing is worse this morning as Treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently a...
09/19/2026

9/18/26

Bond pricing is worse this morning as Treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.996%, above opening levels near 4.943%.

While there was temporary relief following the Fed hike, yields remain under upward pressure this morning as investors weigh ongoing inflationary dynamics.

Global oil flows remain compromised amid the Iran conflict and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These factors could continue putting pressure on yields as the Fed looks to combat inflation.

Treasury buybacks could also play a role in short-term supply and demand dynamics.

Leading Economic Indicators will be released at 10 a.m. ET.

Next week is relatively light on economic news, with Manufacturing and Services PMIs, New Home Sales, and Consumer Sentiment on the calendar.

9/17/26Bond pricing improved in early trading as Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year yield at 4.947%, below th...
09/17/2026

9/17/26

Bond pricing improved in early trading as Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year yield at 4.947%, below the 4.998% opening level.

The Fed raised rates 25 basis points yesterday as expected, citing persistent inflation and a resilient labor market.

Fed Chair Warsh said inflation has remained too high for too long, while officials indicated additional hikes may be needed.

Initial jobless claims fell to 196K, below the 207K forecast and prior reading of 206K.

August pending home sales increased 0.3% month-over-month but remained 2.2% lower year-over-year, signaling continued weakness in housing.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are due tomorrow.

9/16/26Oil prices have reached new recent highs, currently pricing near $104 a barrel amidst recent Iran tensions that w...
09/16/2026

9/16/26

Oil prices have reached new recent highs, currently pricing near $104 a barrel amidst recent Iran tensions that will likely continue for the time being.

Despite the economic challenges, Retail sales increased by 1.2% month over month for August beating forecast, the highest increase in five months.

Import prices also showed stronger than expected increase for August. Inflation continues to creep higher.

It’s widely expected that the Fed will hike rates. This would be the first-rate hike since July of 2023.

The big question is how will bonds react and Warsh’s press conference will be closely watched to determine the Fed’s view; if more hikes are potentially needed or what might lie ahead for the Fed amidst recent Treasury buyback plans, etc.

9/15/26Bonds continued to sell off this morning ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision.The 10- year Treasury yield crossed 5% ...
09/16/2026

9/15/26

Bonds continued to sell off this morning ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision.

The 10- year Treasury yield crossed 5% this morning, marking the highest yield since 2007.

This bond slump raises the stakes for the Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday, where investors expect officials to raise short-term borrowing costs for the first time since July 2023.

If the Fed doesn't hike, or if Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signals less monetary tightening in the coming months than is priced in by money markets, bond investors may demand even higher yields to protect against inflationary risks.

The market is currently pricing in a 94% chance of a rate hike tomorrow.

9/14/26There are no economic releases this morning, however, the week ahead is filled with updates.Retail sales, Import ...
09/15/2026

9/14/26

There are no economic releases this morning, however, the week ahead is filled with updates.

Retail sales, Import prices, Housing Starts and Pending Home sales data are all scheduled for release.

Market participants will likely also be heavily focused on this week’s Fed meeting. The market is widely expecting the Fed to hike rates at this meeting.

The Fed is primarily focused on inflation in the current environment which remains under short run pressure with prolonged Iran conflict and looming higher oil prices that remain captive to reduced oil flows in the Middle East.

The latest jobs data coupled with sticky inflation that remains above the Fed 2% target place the Fed in a position to act.

9/11/26Bond pricing and Treasury yields are holding relatively steady but remain weaker following this week’s inflation ...
09/12/2026

9/11/26

Bond pricing and Treasury yields are holding relatively steady but remain weaker following this week’s inflation data.

CPI rose 0.4% month over month, in line with expectations, while the annual rate held at 3.4%, unchanged from July.

Gasoline prices, a key concern amid the Iran conflict, increased 27% year over year.

Following the release, the 10-year Treasury yield reached a new 52-week high near 4.99% before retreating to current levels.

With the Fed’s next meeting roughly five days away, markets are increasingly focused on the potential for a rate hike following stronger employment and inflation data.

Next week’s retail sales and housing data will be key market drivers.

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