12/22/2025
As I finish out my 2025 year putting a decent $10M+ on the YTD summary, I've been thinking about 2026 and how it will be for buyers and sellers.
Maybe you’ve been scrolling through Zillow for what feels like years, watching those dream homes slip by, not because you don’t want them, but because the math just hasn’t math-ed. That 7% mortgage rate staring back at you feels like a brick wall.
Or maybe you’re on the other side. You’re a homeowner, sitting on a ton of equity, hearing the market is “slow,” and you’re wondering, “Is now the *worst* time to sell? Should I just wait?”
For what feels like forever, the housing market has been in this weird, frozen limbo. Prices haven’t crashed, but sales have slumped. Everyone’s just been… waiting. Waiting for a sign, for a break, for something to change.
Well, what if I told you that according to some of the top economists in real estate, that long-awaited change is finally on the calendar? And it’s got a specific date: 2026.
Today, I'm diving deep into a major new forecast that just dropped from the National Association of Realtors. Their Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, stood up at a huge conference and made a pretty bold prediction: 2026 is set to be the year the housing market makes a real comeback.
This isn’t just vague optimism. We’re talking about a projected 14% jump in home sales nationwide. After a year of basically going sideways in 2025, that’s a massive shift.
But here’s what’s crucial: This isn’t a prediction of another crazy, everyone-loses-their-minds bidding war frenzy. Yun is painting a picture of a recovery. A market that’s finally starting to move again, but with some new, very important rules.
So, whether you’re a first-time buyer who’s been sidelined, a move-up buyer sitting on equity, or just someone fascinated by the economy, this forecast gives us a roadmap. We’re going to break down the three key drivers behind this prediction, the big warning about a divided market, and what it all means for you.
The 3 Engines of the 2026 Comeback
The Affordability Engine (Slowly) Starts Back Up
The biggest blocker has been mortgage rates. But the needle is finally moving. After hovering around 7%, we’ve seen them dip into the mid-6% range. Yun forecasts they’ll average around 6% in 2026.
Now, hear this: Don’t expect 3% rates. That’s not happening. But even this modest decline is a big deal. Why? Because it directly impacts monthly payments. A drop from 6.7% to 6% on a $400,000 loan saves you about $175 a month. That’s real money that could push thousands of waiting buyers off the fence.
The Fundamentals Are Weirdly Strong
Look beyond the rates, and the foundation is solid:
Steady job growth is continuing. People with paychecks can buy houses.
Most homeowners are sitting on huge equity cushions. They’re not distressed.
Mortgage applications are up 31% compared to last year! The pent-up demand is very, very real.
Sellers Are Adapting
For existing homes, Sellers are learning they need to price right. Yun shared a critical insight: if your house sits, you’ll likely need to cut the price.
0-14 days on market: Average 4.9% price cut.
Over 120 days on market: Average 13.8% price cut.
The message is clear: realistic pricing will be the key to a successful 2026 sale.
The BIG Warning: A Tale of Two Markets
But—and this is a huge but—this rebound won’t be equal.
NAR’s Deputy Chief Economist, Jessica Lautz, called it the market of “Haves and Have-Nots.”
The Haves: Repeat buyers, especially baby boomers with decades of equity. They’re often buying with cash, dominating the upper end of the market. Sales in the $750k-$1M range are already strong.
The Have-Nots: First-time buyers. They hit an all-time low of just 21% of buyers. The median age of a first-timer is now **40**. They’re battling high rents, student debt, and scarce starter-home inventory.
So, the comeback is coming, but it will be led by move-up buyers and cushioned by equity. Getting into the game for the first time will remain the steepest climb.
So, let’s recap. The 2026 forecast from NAR is signaling a turning point.
Sales are projected to surge 14% as lower rates (around 6%) unlock demand.
Prices will still rise, about 4%, due to job growth and limited supply—no crash in sight.
It will be a smarter, more balanced market where correct pricing is king.
But the gap between existing homeowners and first-timers will remain the market’s biggest challenge.
What does this mean for you?
If you’re buying: Start your mortgage pre-approval process *now*. Get your finances organized. Understand the down payment assistance programs out there. When 2026 hits, you want to be ready to move, not starting from scratch.
If you’re selling: Work with an agent who understands data-driven pricing. The market will be moving, but homes priced like it’s 2021 will just sit. Realism equals a faster sale.
The feeling of stagnation is about to lift. The gears are starting to turn again.
#2026
