10/02/2024
It looks like what I spotted weeks ago is happening across the country.
Quote from Altos Research & Housing Wire:
"Housing demand is very seasonal, so the fact that our pending contract data is firming up lately just shows that lower mortgage rates have stabilized and firmed up demand recently.
It will likely take mortgage rates to go under 6% and stay there for an extended period to get real sustained demand growth from record-low sales levels. However, considering the affordability challenges with the housing market, it’s good to see a flip in the housing data without rates getting under 6%.
Weekly pending sales
Below is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data to show real-time demand. Now, this data line is very seasonal, as we can see in the chart below, and we all know that mortgage rates were heading toward 8% a year ago, so we need to be mindful of the positive year-over-year data. However, the weekly pending contract data has firmed up recently, even during the recent seasonal decline period. I will be curious to see if it continues because, due to seasonality factors, it shouldn’t, but for now, here we are.
2024: 362,620
2023: 340,526
2022: 380,823"