01/08/2026
Another article to keep you informed... note the interesting datapoint of ~40% of homes don't have a mortgage.
The "Mortgage Rate Lock-In" Might Be… Kinda Fake (from HousingWire)
For years, the housing internet has insisted Americans are trapped by their ultra-low mortgage rates like golden handcuffs. The theory goes: nobody with a 3% rate would ever sell and buy again at 6–7%, so housing inventory should be frozen. Sounds logical.
Turns out… the data doesn't really back it up.
According to new analysis from Logan Mohtashami, more homeowners now have mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%. As of Q3 2025, 21.2% of homeowners carry rates over 6%, while only 20% are at 3% or lower. Back in early 2022, that relationship was flipped. The middle ground is shrinking too: homeowners with rates between 3% and 4% dropped from 40.5% to 31.5% in just a few years.
So who's giving up a 2.5–5% mortgage to buy at a higher rate? Normal people, apparently.
Rate alone isn't the whole payment equation. Home prices, equity, loan size, taxes, insurance, and income all matter, and today's homeowners are sitting on far more equity than during the housing crash. FICO scores are strong, wages are higher, and foreclosure rates still haven't even returned to 2019 levels.
Inventory adds another wrinkle. Active listings are still below "normal" (about 1.43 million vs. the usual 2–2.5 million, per National Association of Realtors), but supply has been growing. And a key stat gets overlooked constantly: roughly 40% of homes don't have a mortgage at all, meaning there's literally no rate to be locked into.
So when you're sitting at family dinner, you can sound like a smarty pants by saying, "yes. rates do influence behavior, but they don't override life. People still move for jobs, family, space, divorce, downsizing, or opportunity". The lockdown story sounds like the obvious scapegoat, but the data from HousingWire and This Week Today says shows otherwise." You're welcome! – Full Article can be found here (but subscription needed)
New data shows more homeowners now have mortgage rates above 6% than below 3%, challenging the mortgage rate lockdown theory.