House Flipping Do's & Dont's

12/10/2025

Fed cut interest rates 1/4 pt - Chairman Powell speaks @ 11:30 PT

11/24/2025

Are Seattle Metro's Pending Sales the Canary in the Mine?

This is not normal seasonal slowing. October is always soft, but the average October YoY drop over the past twelve years is –1.82%. This year the county-wide SFR pending print was the fourth-worst October on record in this 13-year dataset (-10.83%), making it a significant outlier vs normal seasonal measure (5-6× worse than average).

https://wp.me/p24xru-1HX

11/13/2025

"Houston ...We Have a Problem!"

Taken together, the picture is one of surface-level motion masking deeper fragility. TALs may still be rising, but they no longer signify healthy absorption or expanding demand. Instead, they reflect a marketplace turning over on itself—transactionally active yet directionally adrift, with builders retreating, buyers hesitating, and genuine progress stalling beneath the noise.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1GL

10/28/2025

I ran our blog forecasts over the past year through two different AI's to get an unbiased breakdown of our accuracy compared to industry peers.

The Year in Review: Q4 2024-Present

Over the past year, our proprietary forecasting algorithms have reached a level of precision that confirms what years of research and testing have steadily built toward. These results—verified through time-stamped data and consistent correlation with real-world outcomes—reflect a body of work developed long before the current wave of automation and AI. While technology now helps streamline certain tasks, the insights themselves are the product of original thinking, unique modeling, and hands-on experience that no software can replicate.

Because of this proven reliability, our county and submarket reports are now password-protected. Access remains complimentary for our active clients who rely on these insights to make timely and well-informed decisions. For others who are genuinely interested, we’re happy to provide passwords once we’ve determined a good fit and potential for future collaboration.

We’re also considering offering limited public access to these reports in the future through a paid format. For now, though, these detailed analyses remain an exclusive client resource—reflecting both the depth of the data and the value of the forecasting accuracy we’ve achieved.

AI Breakdown: https://wp.me/p24xru-1ES

09/26/2025

Is the Fed Really Neutral ...REALLY?

Across these four actions (rate cuts), the total easing amounts to 1.25%. Yet, as of September 25, 2025, 30-year mortgage rates stand at 6.30%, higher than the levels seen a year prior. This persistence highlights how the scale of these cuts has been relatively contained amid broader rate dynamics. Some observers have remarked on the sequence's alignment with key dates on the political calendar, which stands in contrast to the Fed's emphasis on data-driven independence. The pattern invites analysis of both the timing and results, allowing readers to evaluate accordingly.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1Cj

09/08/2025

September 2025 Washington Housing Markets Update: Inventory Surges, Prices Split!

Washington’s housing market is flashing its clearest buyer-friendly signals in over two years. Inventory is piling up across the state—active listings jumped nearly 31% year-over-year in August—yet prices remain divided, with about half the counties showing declines and the other half holding or gaining ground. Sellers are more hesitant to list, new supply is tightening slightly, and sales momentum is cooling. Together, these forces signal a market in transition: buyers are gaining leverage, but sellers are not giving up easily.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1yw

08/29/2025

Game Changer! We're Excited About This One!!!

"Historically, 401(k) plans have been limited to stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. Real estate exposure was possible through REITs, but direct investments in private real estate deals were largely out of reach due to fiduciary concerns and regulatory hurdles. This executive order aims to change that, directing the Department of Labor, SEC, and Treasury to clarify rules and create “safe harbors” for retirement plans to include alternative assets. In short: real estate is now part of the retirement conversation for everyday savers."

Discover how Trump's executive order opens 401(k) plans to real estate and alternative assets, shaping a new era for retirement investing.

08/28/2025

Fed Leadership Shift: A Game Changer for Buyers, Sellers, and Home Values!

The Fed’s Neutrality Is a Myth: August 2025 Update

Back in May 2025, we warned that the Federal Reserve’s claim of being “data dependent” was wearing thin. Our piece, “The Myth of Fed Neutrality,” suggested a looming shift—and August 2025 delivers.

Leadership Shakeup
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigned in early August, replaced on an interim basis by Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee. Then, on August 26, President Trump fired Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud related to her designating two homes as primary residences. These moves signal more than routine turnover.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1we

08/07/2025

The general stagnation of median home prices continues across many of the more developed counties, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s now 34-week freeze on interest rates. As we anticipated months ago, the Fed is facing increasing pressure from both political parties to begin cutting rates. While Republican voices have been the most vocal in calling for cuts, a number of Democrats—both progressive and moderate—have also joined the call for relief.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1rL

08/02/2025

On August 1, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, effective August 8, 2025—well ahead of her scheduled term ending in January 2026. While that may sound like a behind-the-scenes D.C. shift, it carries potential consequences for homeowners, investors, and anyone watching the path of mortgage rates.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1qS

07/07/2025

Our Q2 Forecast: A Blindfolded Bullseye
Let’s start with the headline: our Q2 2025 King County median price forecast for single-family homes was $1,035,918. The actual? $1,033,950 in June—a mere $1,968 difference, or 0.19%. That’s not just accurate; it’s a masterclass in precision. To put it in perspective, that’s tighter than most inflation targets, election polls, or Wall Street algorithms. And we called it before the chaos of 2024—before Trump’s shooting, before Harris replaced Biden, before tariff talks and Fed hawkishness shook markets. We didn’t just hit the mark; we called our shot, blindfolded, in a hurricane, and still nailed it. That’s the kind of insight you get when you trust our data-driven approach.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1of

06/23/2025

Dr. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s Chief Economist, claimed on June 12, 2025, in an Altos Research interview posted on X, that “we’ve already lived through the worst of the housing correction.” Redfin’s forecast of a 2–9% increase in national home sales for 2025 paints a rosy picture. Yet, Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, reported in June 2025 that sellers outnumber buyers nationwide, signaling a supply surge that could push prices down. This contradiction raises doubts about Redfin’s optimism, especially in Washington State, where local data tells a starkly different story. In King and Snohomish Counties, rising inventory and falling median prices challenge Redfin’s narrative, offering a clearer lens on the market than broad national projections.

https://wp.me/p24xru-1lN