http://wynnlynchproperties.com/

wynnlynchproperties, 2700 Canyon Boulevard Ste 200, Boulder, CO (2026)

11/03/2023

NOVEMBER MARKET UPDATE - It’s been a while since I’ve done a market update and to be honest there hasn’t been too much to report through the summer. Locally, inventory is still somewhat low and average days on market has crept up, but only to about 45 days. Prices have been appreciating through the year, but at a lower rate than years previous.

Interest rates have been rising throughout the year and are at a high for recent decades. Just days ago though, the Fed waived a chance to raise rates and mortgage rates have begun to drop a bit. With about a .25 point drop this week. It has yet to be seen if that will continue but likely rates will gradually drop though next year. Markets like Boulder that are stable now will likely see prices revert to steadily rising.

The last bit of news out of the last month has to do with a recent class action lawsuit. The base of the lawsuit is about companies encouraging agents to not give sellers a clear choice when it comes to paying an agent that brings a buyer. Custom in the US is to have the seller pay 5-6% commissions, which get split between the seller’s and buyer’s agents. Commissions are 100% negotiable and the seller can opt to not pay a buyer’s agent. This can affect how the listing is sold and who will take the job, but it is a right. Likely we will see more disclosures, but not too many major changes. This lawsuit has brought up other issues though and going forward some changes will be less mandatory fees for agents, and more restrictions on call/text/email outreach.

08/11/2023

Most of my market reports for the past year have been bleak for those looking to own real estate for the first time. Rates have gone up making financing expensive, and many would be sellers have locked in low rates, or no mortgage, and have less reason to sell. Prices will likely stay close to flat until rates drop and then we should see another rise in prices when the masses can finance for less.

Despite the tough market, owning real estate and leveraging the US mortgage system is still one of the best ways to build wealth for most people in this country. If you are looking to own something, check out the tips above, some might surprise you.

If you have questions, or need an agent, MLO, or contractor referral in your area, feel free to reach out!

08/04/2023

JULY MARKET UPDATE - Not much has changed over the summer, rates are slowly climbing but still in the 6-8% range for most home buyers. This has discouraged many from selling their home right now, and as a result inventory is very low compared to a normal market. The lack of supply has kept prices flat to slowly rising in the front range and much of the country.

Looking ahead, rates will likely stay close to where they are or increase slightly, and home prices still have no reason to go down. The stock and bond markets have been doing decently and predictions from the large investment groups have improved for the rest of this year. If that keeps up, we will see buyer activity and prices rise a bit, but there is still not much reason for homeowners with lower rates to sell.

I wish there was better news for home buyers right now, but there are still ways young or low income people can enter the market. I’ll be making a post soon about all the options most people aren’t aware of. Remember, even though mortgage payments are expensive right now, so is rent. And owning with a fixed mortgage will build equity and lock in a monthly payment, unlike renting. If you’re looking to build long term wealth, homeownership is still one of the best ways average Americans can do that.

06/08/2023

MAY MARKET UPDATE - Prices going up again is the main point of this month’s update, which of course can be good news for sellers and bad news for buyers. Sale/List price ratio is now back over 100%. The primary reason for this is that sellers still overwhelmingly have more reason to stay and hold their homes, rather than sell en masse. Inventory is still very low.

Another contributing change is the the Fed is showing a light at the end of the tunnel with interest rates. They have been playing with ‘skipping’ rate raises and realistic predictions are starting to be made about a terminal rate. Mortgage rates have now been between about 5-7% for almost a year and people are becoming accustom to that figure.

With the Fed’s current signaling, it is becoming unlikely that rates will change drastically in the near future. They may even start going down slowly. Low current and predicted inventory, with stable or dropping rates, means prices will continue up in stronger markets like CO. Many buyers will see the risk of waiting while prices rise to be greater than the savings of waiting for lower rates. As more buyers see that and enter the market, growth rates may very well speed up. Those who feel like home prices are too high today and are waiting for drop may be waiting for nothing.

05/04/2023

APRIL MARKET UPDATE - The data from April is in and it’s a pretty stagnant story for the Front Range. Interest rates have stayed between 6-7% for most people. On a notional level, Powell still plans to raise rates gradually for now, but reported inflation has been slowing, making people wonder why rate raises are still happening. At this point though, it seems like mortgage rates will hover or even drop as banks continue to have some struggles.

Right now, buyers are continuing to buy by either using cash, accepting the higher interest rates for now, or using more creative financing options. Sellers are still mostly locked into low rates and have good equity, so there is no rush of listings on the horizon. Instead we are seeing # of sales rise and inventory slowly drop. This actually sets up a rise in home prices if these conditions continue.

One thing that has changed is how many buyers are bidding on each property. Some sales still see high competition with the lack of inventory, especially in regular residential sales. For investment properties though, individuals and companies are struggling to plan for the current market. Cash is still king, private money loans are nearing double digit interest rates, and because of that sellers are being forced to look at offers under list much more seriously when it is cash or a “like-cash” financing option.

Likely, the market will stay relatively flat for the near future. Some areas will drop and some will rise depending on that individual market. Rates will also likely stay near the same. So if you’re waiting for a new market to buy, you may be waiting for a while.

05/04/2023

APRIL MARKET UPDATE - The data from April is in and it’s a pretty stagnant story for the Front Range. Interest rates have stayed between 6-7% for most people. On a notional level, Powell still plans to raise rates gradually for now, but reported inflation has been slowing, making people wonder why rate raises are still happening. At this point though, it seems like mortgage rates will hover or even drop as banks continue to have some struggles.

Right now, buyers are continuing to buy by either using cash, accepting the higher interest rates for now, or using more creative financing options. Sellers are still mostly locked into low rates and have good equity, so there is no rush of listings on the horizon. Instead we are seeing # of sales rise and inventory slowly drop. This actually sets up a rise in home prices if these conditions continue.

One thing that has changed is how many buyers are bidding on each property. Some sales still see high competition with the lack of inventory, especially in regular residential sales. For investment properties though, individuals and companies are struggling to plan for the current market. Cash is still king, private money loans are nearing double digit interest rates, and because of that sellers are being forced to look at offers under list much more seriously when it is cash or a “like-cash” financing option.

Likely, the market will stay relatively flat for the near future. Some areas will drop and some will rise depending on that individual market. Rates will also likely stay near the same. So if you’re waiting for a new market to buy, you may be waiting for a while.

04/04/2023

MARCH MARKET UPDATE - The data from March is in and it's showing a bit of a spring boom. Average prices were up last month with number of sales rising and bringing down the total supply of inventory. This sets home values up for a slight rise overall. Part of this is seasonal, people planning to move in the summer starting their search in the spring, but it also has to do with the mortgage rate drops of the last few weeks. Financial issues with banks have been a headline this past month, and decreased confidence in banks often means lower loan rates.

Many potential buyers are still hoping for a drop in price after seeing such explosive, double digit growth in 2020 and 2021 and flat to low growth since. Some believe this market must be in a correction but there's a couple reasons why the chances of a large price drop are slim. For one, Americans have more home equity than ever before. At the end of 2022, the average mortgage holder had $185,000 equity, 35% more than the average in 2021. Where did all this equity come from? Home prices rose during the low mortgage rates of a couple years ago and currently, 85.3% of borrowers nationals are locked in under 5%, and Colorado has 91.8% of borrowers under 5%. Because of this, the odds of a huge foreclosure spike or other factors causing the masses to need to sell are pretty low. If you're waiting for a price drop to find a home think of it this way - If you had a home locked in with a mortgage rate under 5%, $185,000 equity in your home, would you sell/move with higher interest rates, or hold your home and low monthly payment? For prices to drop, the inventory needs to come from somewhere.

03/03/2023

FEBRUARY MARKET UPDATE - February hasn't brought the answers many were hoping for. A recent inflation jump has changed the outlook for rates and the economy. Rates are again going up, but it's unclear if that will continue. In the local market, list to sale ratio is under 100%, meaning seller's think their homes are worth more than current buyers do. Supply is slowly increasing with lack of demand, but prices still seem to be near flat overall.

Since the story on a national level is still unclear, I'll share a market issue I've been noticing personally. I check new listing often to look for investment properties. In 2022 there were still deals to be found. It wasn't like 2020 or 2021 where people were getting a very cheap mortgage, seeing quick appreciation(equity), and seeing cash flow right off the bat, but it was still working. I would find a couple cash flowing rental properties a month. Ones that would be money makers after the property was repaired and rented. Good ones would go fast and cash offers would win out, tougher ones would sit. This year, rents have not risen like mortgages have. Finding an investment property that's financable and cash flows is very rare right now. Finding good properties usually involves finding properties that have not sold with owners who need to be out. I see three possibilities in the next year or so:
1. Inflation continues at or above it's current rate, mortgages stay at or above 6.5%, owners fight to raise rents to keep the properties values and we see a big spike in rent price, with flat property prices.
2. Inflation continues at or above it's current rate, mortgages stay at or above 6.5%, buyers fight for lower prices. Days on market would go up, followed by gradual drops in price from people who need to sell. Rents stay flat, prices go down.
3. Inflation drops, rates stop being risen, mortgage companies get competitive and a drop rates, bringing back an appreciating market.
What actually happens will depend on the economy as whole. If inflation continues and rates rise further, rents will be raised where they can be to maintain prices. Pay close attention to local politics to see what happens near you.

02/03/2023

JANUARY MARKET UPDATE - The stats from January, and 2022 as a whole are coming in and they are pretty interesting. The current estimate for the front range of Colorado is that home prices rose about 4% in 2022. This is very different from the double digit growth figures of ’20 and ’21, but it is also different from the value drops being highlighted in some areas around the US. Colorado is still a boom state, and prices in general are expected to rise slightly again over the next few years.

To zoom in on January, average price and average list price are starting to rise slightly. This is not another seller’s market though, inventory is rising and sale vs list price is still just under 100%, so overpriced listings are not selling like they have in the past.

Some of this rally has to do with the holidays passing, but buyer demand has also turned back up with a drop in rates. People are again seeing 5.something interest rates and are wondering if that’s worth locking in. The fed has said they will continue to rate hike, but also said they will move to a quarter point basis and believe we are in a process of “deinflation”, whatever that means.

So now we need to see if the economy can maintain course and buyer’s come back to the market with enough force to push prices higher again. Right now the number of sales per month is dwindling compared to the craze of ’20 and ’21, but could begin to rise again as buyer gain back some buying power.

01/03/2023

DECEMBER MARKET UPDATE - The year has come to a close and it has been a weird one. Interest rates went from the lowest they’ve been in decades to the highest they’ve been in decades, and are now sitting between 5-7% for most borrowers and real estate loan types. In Colorado, we saw less fluctuation than most of the country, but the market definitely slowed in terms of days on market. At the start of the year 15-30 days, and sometime even less, was not an unreasonable expectation. Now most homes are selling in 45-75 days. This has helped inventory a bit, but it is still low compared to demand. The general consensus is that although prices went up and down throughout this year, overall values are some where between the same to 5% more than they were last year. Very different from the double digit growth rates of 2020 and 2021, but still a growth for Colorado home prices.

The whole real estate industry is still watching for the next indicator. Inventory is low, rates are higher than the last couple years, but coming down to normal figures, yet buyers and sellers are still not seeing eye to eye on who has the advantage in this market. One thing I can tell sellers is that pricing is now more important than ever. Homes that sell successfully are now priced to sell and closing at list price or even a little less. Homes that are overpriced are now getting little interest or low ball offers.

This is all I have for now, but am hoping that the next 30 days will be a good indicator of what is to come in the new year. Home’s right now should be priced off of only the most recent sales and current active listings. If you would like to know the current value of your home in this crazy market, feel free to reach out to me by DM or at 818-388-0350.

12/02/2022

NOVEMBER MARKET UPDATE-The holiday season is upon us and it is definitely slower than last year. Interest rates are in limbo right now and many people are deciding to wait until the new year to move. Many just because of people’s schedules around the holidays, but some are hopeful that rates will come down in the next couple months. The Fed has said that they are seeing a slow in inflation and, although they still plan to raise rates, are now planning to do so in smaller increments. This has led to a rally in the stock market and new hopes of lower mortgage interest rates, which are not directly correlated to the Fed’s rate.

Only time will tell what happens to the market. Expect December to be slow as well in terms of home sales, but watch for news on rates. Lower rates coming into the new year, with people back to normal schedules, could lead to another home sale boom. We will just have to wait until January to see.

My last note for today on housing market news, is when you hear about markets decreasing, pay attention to which markets. A recent Redfin report shows that certain areas are making large gains, some are massively decreasing, and some are just staying stable. Boulder has been a relatively stable market, but places that were affected by the COVID moves are the ones that are moving now. Many areas in the southwest saw a rise in people fleeing cities, who are now moving back and lowering prices by selling. On the other hand, cities that saw people leave during COVID, especially in the midwest are making a comeback price-wise.

11/03/2022

MARKET UPDATE-October was full of spooky news for real estate. On a national level, interest rates are still being pushed up by the Fed in an effort to slow inflation, and so far the results have been mixed. They are planning to continue raising interest rates for the next quarter, but many economists predict they will have to reverse that by the end of 2023. The question right now is how high will mortgage rates go before they start trending down. National news says this is making the housing market crash 10% or more, but that’s not the case here, or in many places.

Some buyers have been put off by the the interest rates, causing more inventory and less sales. However, those with cash, or that can tolerate the current interest rates are still buying. Since there is less competition they are not forced to bid above asking, which is why the list/sales price ratio is 98%. It’s still the slow season out here, but buyer demand is expected to increase into the new year.

Another thing to watch that could increase demand is rate downs and other loan programs. I even heard about one the other day where you can crowdfund your down payment, even putting it on wedding registry. These are definitely strange times for the US housing market…

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