06/12/2026
From the Desk of Your Home Loan Pro — Chris O
A Week of Relief in the Rate Roller Coaster
For weeks, the markets have been trapped in a geopolitical version of Deal or No Deal tied to the Iran war. Some days we opened the winning briefcase. Other days… not so much.
This week, though? We finally landed on the right case.
Why This Matters for Mortgage Rates
Here’s the clean, simple chain reaction behind the volatility:
War in Iran → Oil prices spike
Higher oil → Higher inflation
Higher inflation → Higher interest rates
There are always side stories, but these three drivers have been steering the ship.
How the Week Unfolded
Rates opened the week on the defensive as weekend fighting continued. But momentum shifted quickly when Israel agreed to halt attacks in Lebanon. That helped stabilize bonds, even as yields briefly rose with money rotating back into stocks ahead of Treasury auctions.
Then came Wednesday.
Trump said the U.S. would be hitting Iran “very hard,” and markets braced for escalation. But within 24 hours, he reversed course — cancelling further attacks and delivering the strongest peace‑deal language we’ve heard yet.
This time, markets reacted decisively:
Bond yields dropped
Oil prices fell
Stocks surged
The final question was whether Iran would push back. Instead, by Friday morning, Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the two sides were closer than ever to signing a memo that would effectively end the war and open the door to formal peace negotiations.
Impact on Mortgage Rates
Bonds ended the week near their best levels, and because mortgage rates follow bonds, 30‑year fixed rates hit their lowest point in more than a week.
We’re now just 0.02% above the lowest level of the past four weeks (set on May 29).
The catch:
That four‑week stretch still represents the highest rate range of the past 10 months.
Progress — but from a high starting point.
What’s Ahead
Next week brings more potential volatility.
If a peace deal is signed: rates likely move lower
If fighting reignites: we’re back testing long‑term highs
We also have a Fed announcement on Wednesday. No hike or cut is expected, but comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can always move markets.
National Average Mortgage Rates (as of 6/12)
30YR Fixed: 6.58% (‑0.08)
15YR Fixed: 6.14% (+0.01)
30YR FHA: 6.14% (‑0.04)
30YR Jumbo: 6.84% (+0.14)
7/6 SOFR ARM: 6.27% (‑0.03)
30YR VA: 6.16% (‑0.03)
MBS & Treasury Pricing (as of 6/12, 4:40 PM EST)
UMBS 5.0: 98.09 (‑0.03)
10‑Year Treasury: 4.4799% (+0.0114)
30‑Year Treasury: 4.9705% (+0.0131)
Recent Housing Data
Mortgage Apps (Jun 10): +7.98%
Building Permits (Apr): +5.1%
Housing Starts (Apr): ‑2.46%
New Home Sales (Apr): ‑8.8%
Pending Home Sales (Feb 2): +2.22%
Existing Home Sales (May): +3.73%
Builder Confidence (May): +8.82%
