06/14/2026
Where is our local housing market going? 6/14/2026.
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There seems to be a total misunderstanding by a large number of people as to what the term "Buyer's Market" means. Every week my posts receive comments that say they're not buying a home now because it's an awful market. Instead they're gonna wait till the news media says it's a great market. It's a GREAT BUYER'S MARKET BUT A BAD SELLER'S MARKET! DUH!!! These naysayers seem to think that if homes aren't selling quickly that they shouldn't buy. Ironically, if homes were suddenly selling quickly, these same naysayers would be complaining that they missed the bottom and should have bought months ago.
Many strongly disagree with my analysis that our local housing market has hit bottom and starting climb out, despite the charts and solid data I provide. Yet they don't have any data supporting their opinion other than a news article or two from the past that says we're the worst housing market in the country. Conversely busy realtors like me are getting multiple texts and emails every day from investors looking to make deals.
Obviously the naysayers and the investors don't talk to each other. If they did, we'd be having bidding wars for the best homes driving up prices and our inventory would be low. Sellers would be VERY Happy LOL.
Many geopolitical and economic matters are keeping our housing prices down and interest rates up. Once the Iran peace deal happens, all the pundits say our economy will react with lower fuel prices, lower inflation, and more optimism. Ironically, the stock markets went up this week when kinetic strikes resumed, as it was viewed as the end of the war is near.
Consumers are still spending despite higher gas prices increasing their personal transportation costs as well as the costs of goods. I've traveled a couple times in the past few months, one to visit family from up north a week ago while they were at Disney and the other to Virginia. Traffic was horrible. The price of gas isn't stopping many from traveling obviously. When gas prices go back down to pre-Iran conflict levels, Americans pocketbooks will be stronger.
Recent data released by local visitor bureaus indicate that SWFL tourism is up. More and more people are traveling here to enjoy what we have to offer -- many are starting to consider living here. More will consider moving here, if the property tax changes outlined by the above graphic passes in November. Remember: Taxes on Homesteaded properties won't change until your 2027 bill; you'll still be under the current system for your 2026 taxes that you won't pay until the end of 2026 or during early 2027.
Local governments have a lot of decisions to make in the next year to make up for the lost revenue. Some things like funding for police, fire and schools won't change. But many of the other services are going to be under tough scrutiny for how to reduce and/or fund their costs. I've wondered whether cites and counties will increase or establish assessments, fees, and more. I've also wondered how much lower the budgets will be or will local governments find other revenue sources. Or will owners of non-homesteaded homes going to have to open up their pocketbooks?
If it passes, how will it affect the FL housing market? On one hand, I see this resulting in a higher number of homesteaders moving to Florida, especially people who can pack up and leave their high State taxes up north and high local taxes such as NYC. FYI, currently 44% of homes in Cape Coral are homesteaded.
On the other hand, I wonder how many FL properties that are owned by those who can't homestead, basically snowbirds and landlords, will suddenly hit the market? One obvious affect is that landlords are going to have to charge higher rent to pay for their increased taxes and assessments burden. If Landlords raise rents, that may drive many renters to buy, if they qualify as a Florida resident. About 25% of Cape Coral's population are annual renters who qualify as Florida residents.
Overall I see demand increasing. What I don't understand is why more experts aren't talking about the potential impact on the Florida real estate market.
Another thing to remember is that if the proposal passes, the changes to local governments are moving targets. Again as shown in the above graphic, the homestead exemption in 2027 is $150K, 2028 is $250K, and future legislation is anticipated to raise the exemption eveb higher with the goal being to make the exemption for the total value of each homesteaded home.
If you are a Buyer waiting for mortgage rates to come down, you may find that the amount of lower interest won't cover future higher prices. As one homebuilder recently said, you can refi the rate, but you can't refi the price.
There are alternatives to those that MUST have a lower rate now in order to qualify or because they want a bargain. One option is to refi later if you can qualify for the price of the home you want. Another is to negotiate a Seller Buy Down on the rate. In essence the Seller agrees to pay what is known as discount points to the Lender in turn for the Buyer to have a lower rate.
Many Lenders are currently offering 1% buydown on their rates. National homebuilders may provide even lower rates through their approved Lenders. Make sure you check with Lenders for their options before applying, as most Lenders will at time of application, pull a credit report on you which results in a "hit" on your credit ranking each time.
So, I continue my rant:
Buyers, What are you waiting for? A Seller's market like 2022-3 so you can pay more?
Here's a few news articles, I've collected this week:
- IRS data shows income migration continues to favor Florida. https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/06/irs-data-shows-income-migration-continues-favor-florida-0?utm_campaign=6-5-26+Florida+Realtors+News&utm_medium=email&utm_source=iPost
- SWFL tourism season review shows growth. https://www.gulfshorebusiness.com/inside-the-magazine/visitor-spending-climbs-24-percent-as-tourism-gains-momentum/article_92e8b7e9-1f91-47fa-bb1f-187fc1ed54fc.html
- Mortgage applications climb as borrowers find openings in volatile market. Refi's jumped 15%, while new purchase-loan demand rose 7%. https://www.homes.com/news/mortgage-applications-climb-as-borrowers-find-openings-in-volatile-market/374680256/?utm_source=Homes&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=HM_PDT_B2B_ALL_AgentBreakingNewsFTP_20260401&utm_content=cta
- Existing home sales increased 3.2% nationally in May, beating expectations. Weekly pending sales and purchase apps suggest demand improved after early 2026 disruptions, with rates mostly kept under 6.64% by better spreads.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/ ?compose=QFccmrckwXJGqnXFjcmMhMfMcbsCLkqdRMbMLQgptxxJPckbrLsHvCjTXMrQGRpCnFxHcWpDBfhgKxrKvMRtTtWL
- 'It’s a speed bump, not a wall:' Lenders help borrowers navigate mortgage uncertainty. To help borrowers navigate that uncertainty, lenders are using strategies such as higher-rate preapprovals, adjustable-rate mortgages, and seller concessions. https://www.homes.com/news/its-a-speed-bump-not-a-wall-lenders-help-borrowers-navigate-mortgage-uncertainty/1268190468/?utm_source=Homes&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=HM_PDT_B2B_ALL_AgentBreakingNewsFTP_20260401&utm_content=cta
- Strong jobs report gives Fed less reason to cut rates. https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news- /2026/06/strong-jobs-report-adds-rate-discussion?utm_campaign=6-8-26+Florida+Realtors+News&utm_source=iPost&utm_medium=email
Some Buyers "get it" right now. We're seeing some of the nicest homes or best values go under contract. If you're a Seller, your home must be the best value among its competition. Otherwise you're just providing marketing to attract Buyers to homes that are the best value.
SNOOZE YOU LOSE! or be like the smart Buyers who recognize the time is NOW! Don't be late to the party!
So if you know someone who is not buying now, share this blog with them. Tell them to leave the herd that's worried about the economy, falling prices and interest rates. If they wait for the herd to say its ok, prices will instead be rising. When the herd starts to buy, the increased demand in itself will raise prices more. It makes sense to lock in the price of the home now and when rates drop, you can refi.
Buyers need to remember:
VOLATILITY CREATES OPPORTUNITIES
or better stated as,
BUYERS, WHERE ARE YOU? GET OFF YOUR &! #!
