09/10/2026
MARKET UPDATE 9/10/2026
US 10 Year at highest level in 3 years (BAD FOR MORTGAGE RATES)
Key Points
• Headline producer inflation rose 0.4% in August, matching expectations, while Core PPI increased 0.2%, which was 0.1% below estimates. (PPI usually doesn't move markets, but when it comes out the day before CPI and indicates higher inflation, it does, which is today)
• The Treasury department’s expanded buyback schedule came in smaller than expected, sending the 10yr yield to 4.85%, its highest level since November 2023. Analysts had speculated operations could be sized up to $10 billion, but the largest new maximum is $6 billion.
• Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated Wednesday after the U.S. struck Iranian tankers. Brent crude settled at $101.21 and WTI at $96.05, with both benchmarks rising more than 3%. Markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
• Mortgage applications fell 2.7% for the week ending Sept. 4 as the 30-year conforming rate rose 6bps to 6.85%, the highest since June 2025. Refis fell 6% w/w and 25% y/y, the slowest weekly pace since May 2025.
US-Iran Conflict Heats Up:
The US-Iran conflict escalated sharply into commercial shipping this week. The US military said it destroyed five Iranian tankers after ballistic missiles were fired at a US Navy warship overnight, while Iranian media claimed strikes on two US warships and eight oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Houthi militants also targeted energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, and European natural gas traded at its highest level since 2023 heading into the winter heating season. Following yesterday’s escalation, Brent settled up 3.4% at $101.21, above $100 for the first time since July, with WTI up 3.3% to $96.05. Brent is now up roughly 65% year to date. The bond market sold off following the attacks and expectations for a rate hike in September rose. Short-maturity yields led the early-week move higher, with 2yr to 5yr yields setting new 2026 highs before the long end took over following the buyback announcement. Swaps now imply a roughly 63% chance of a RATE HIKE at the September FOMC meeting, up from 60% Tuesday, with at least two hikes fully priced by the middle of 2027.