Eric Rosenthal Realtor Serving the Eastern Iowa Corridor

06/17/2026

Are the Markets (financially) untethered from reality again?

“Burry's argument is not that the technology will fail. It is that the financial structures supporting the demand may be more fragile than the revenue numbers suggest, and when those structures unwind, the people holding the risk are not the ones who profited from building it.”

Michael Burry just went public about Nvidia and the stock market, and where he thinks things are headed is surprising.

06/15/2026

”Pickup any real estate publication over the last decade and you’d see the same cities on the cover: Austin. Phoenix. Tampa. Charlotte. Americans relocated there by the thousands, companies went on hiring binges, rents were climbing fast, and every investor with a slide deck was calling it the future of American real estate. The capital followed, as it always does.

”Those same Sun Belt markets are now absorbing the consequences of a building boom that flooded them with new supply. Rents in Austin have fallen nearly 20% from their 2022 peak. Orlando, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix — the cities with the most new permits issued in 2023 — also posted the steepest rent declines since.

”Add surging insurance costs that hit multifamily operators in Florida especially hard, with a Federal Reserve study finding the largest year-over-year premium increases concentrated in Orlando, Houston, Tampa, and San Antonio. Pile on property taxes that have been climbing to match those inflated valuations, and deals that looked great on paper three years ago are a lot less exciting today.

”The markets nobody was writing about? They kept right on performing.

”Indianapolis. Kansas City. Columbus. These are not markets that generate buzz at industry conferences. They are markets that generate returns.

”The risk-adjusted returns available in Midwest markets have always made them more suitable for investors willing to look past the headlines. Factors like steady population growth and job creation, with a construction pace that follows actual demand rather than enthusiasm, create real value. The Midwest tends not to boom; but it also doesn’t bust. For an investor managing risk as carefully as return, that’s not a consolation prize. It’s the whole point.

”Take the numbers at face value. Indianapolis and Kansas City both run rent-to-income ratios below 20% — the national average is sitting at 27%. That might sound like a wonky data point, but what it really means is that people can afford to live there. And renters who aren’t stretched to the breaking point every month don’t skip out on rent, don’t bounce from apartment to apartment, and don’t disappear the moment the economy hiccups. Financially stable tenants make for stable assets. It’s really that simple.

”It also matters for the tenants themselves. For many of our residents, renting a quality apartment isn’t a lifestyle choice. It’s a financial strategy. They’re putting money in their savings accounts, working toward the day they can buy a home of their own.

“That’s a relationship worth protecting. In Sun Belt markets where purchase prices are already astronomical and the rent-to-income math is already tighter, the temptation to keep pushing rents beyond what residents can reasonably afford is real. But when multifamily owners squeeze them just to make the numbers work, they suffer the consequences: good tenants leave, trust in the community goes down the toilet, and occupancy tanks anyway.

”The same boom-bust cycle that punished investors ends up punishing the people who live there.

”We’ve been focused on Midwest markets since 2010, and over time the secret has gotten out. These markets proved themselves during the Great Financial Crisis and again during the pandemic. These two moments showed clearly how much more the hot markets swung than the steady ones. For us, it was less a revelation than a reminder of why we’d stayed put.

”Our recent acquisition of Kinsley Forest in Kansas City’s Clay County submarket illustrates why we keep coming back to these markets. There are currently just 342 units under construction in Clay County, representing 1.6% of total inventory, and Kansas City is absorbing new units at more than twice the rate they’re being completed. Those aren’t speculative numbers. That’s the kind of balance that produces durable returns.

”As more institutional capital recognizes this, increased competition will reduce yields for new acquisitions — that’s how healthy markets work, and we expect that to normalize over time. Nobody’s watching their insurance bill double overnight, and property taxes aren’t playing catch-up to some valuation spike that happened three years ago. These markets aren’t building recklessly, and that’s not changing anytime soon.

”Real estate investors often have a way of confusing speed with skill, especially those who don’t live and work here in the Midwest. Every cycle has the same hallmarks: the loudest markets attract the most money, prices chase the momentum, and by the time the last wave of investors gets in, the party is already over. We never played that game here. The Midwest rewards patience and discipline over speculation.

”In this business, the flashiest story rarely has the best ending. But wise investment decisions in the Midwest often do.”

While capital chased Sun Belt momentum, secondary markets have been delivering something rarer: steady, reliable returns.

06/12/2026

The Oregon senator, who died Saturday at 93, closed loopholes and cut the top rate to 28%.

By Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore
June 10, 2026, 12:40 pm EDT

“Forty years ago this month, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 was heading for passage in the Senate. The act defined the Reagan revolution by lowering the highest personal income-tax rate—which had been 70% in 1981—to 28%. The corporate rate was slashed from 46% to 34%. The number of individual tax brackets went from 14 to two. When the dust settled, there were two tax rates: 28% and 15%. Everything was “paid for” by nixing exceptions in the tax code covering everything from real estate to unemployment benefits and racehorses to solar energy.

“Sen. Bob Packwood carried the bill to victory. Packwood, who died Saturday at 93, was chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. As Congress dithered, he took charge, sought out sensible Democrats like Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski of Illinois, and reached a deal. New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, a Finance Committee member, recalled his colleague’s work for the bill with these words: ‘Bob Packwood cajoled, threatened and persuaded others on the committee to embrace it, outmaneuvering senators who wanted higher rates and real estate lobbyists eager to protect tax shelters.’

“‘Let’s go radical,’ Packwood told his Democratic colleagues, who joined him in cleaning out the stables of the tax code and using the savings to slash the tax rate even lower than the 35% that President Reagan had sought. Lobbyists gave up trying to fight the bill because of its epic proportions. The bill passed the Senate 97-3. ‘Yes’ votes included Ted Kennedy, Joe Biden and Al Gore.”

“Yes, nearly every Democrat voted for a 28% tax rate. Now many Democrats in Congress want to soak the rich with income tax rates as high as 50%, 60% or 70%, if not an unconstitutional wealth tax.
Large majorities of Republicans and Democrats in both houses voted for imposing the lowest top tax rates since the 1920s. This was Congress at its best. ‘No one in Washington thought it could be done,’ Packwood said after the bill-signing ceremony.

“The law, on top of the 1981 Reagan tax cuts, made America a magnet for capital from around the globe. It helped launch the greatest period of wealth creation in world history over the succeeding 40 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 1,808.35 on Oct. 22, 1986, the day Reagan signed the law. Today it is over 50,000.

“Tax revenue exploded with lower tax rates. The share of taxes paid by the wealthy rose as they lost their favorite tax shelters and instead put their money to productive use. Economist Martin Feldstein, who served as chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers (1982-84), wrote on these pages in 2011 that ‘actual experience after 1986 showed an enormous rise in taxes paid, particularly by those who experienced the greatest reductions in marginal tax rates.’

We know the policy worked because nearly every other nation followed suit by slashing tax rates to keep pace with America’s economic boom.

“We need another 1986 tax reform. The tax-code stables haven’t been cleaned out in decades. We’ve added more loopholes, and a top rate of near 40% is counterproductive. Imagine if 40 years later and on our nation’s 250th anniversary, Democrats and Republicans could do it again.”

Messes. Laffer and Moore are co-founders of Unleash Prosperity.

The Oregon senator, who died Saturday at 93, closed loopholes and cut the top rate to 28%.

05/30/2026

Good advice: (1) a stewardship attitude not an attitude of entitlement; (2) planning carefully; (3) long-term investing, and; (4) being frugal.

The CEO of a wealth management software company said hundreds of good decisions over many years is what preserves riches.

05/27/2026

Comments on the $30 Trillion US Treasury Market which has seen prices plunge and rates soar lately:

“…Bonds now offer higher starting yields that can better protect portfolios if stocks falter and inflation remains problematic. Recent consumer survey data also highlights the extremely pessimistic mood about the economy, despite the stock market SPX sitting near record highs.

“‘There’s reason to believe that while inflation is ticking higher, the consumer isn’t in a perfect spot to absorb this,’ said Lorizio at Manulife. Rates can move higher in near term, he said, but an inability of consumers to keep pace ‘should anchor rates a bit lower.’”

Marketwatch, May 26, 2026

05/15/2026

More than half of Americans in their 40s are helping aging parents while also raising children or financially supporting adult children.
Marketwatch, May 14 2026

05/11/2026

“There has been a series of one-off inflationary events — a pandemic, tariffs, and a war. Now, they’re blurring together to make high inflation feel like a fact of life. The bond market is betting the Federal Reserve agrees and will keep interest rates high, or even raise them.”

Interest rates on long-term bonds have been headed upward since around 2020, after spending decades before that trending downward.

05/09/2026

Been there, done that. And if you haven’t yet, you almost certainly know families grappling with this currently.

40 million caregivers provide an estimated 3/4 trillion dollars worth of care every year in the United States!

“The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 75 to 80% of US eldercare hours are performed by informal caregivers, an army of loved ones deputized into unpaid care roles by sheer necessity. The majority of those caregivers (61%) are women: the wives, close friends and, especially, daughters of the nation's elderly and infirm. Women account for nearly 70% of caregivers providing constant, round-the-clock care. Some, including Hale, rely on part- or full-time paid help. Most do not. Many must balance caregiving tasks with raising kids and holding down jobs.

“When the load becomes too much to handle, their jobs and earnings often take a hit. Paid hours get surrendered; promotions get missed. Many leave the workforce entirely. These missed opportunities add up. By one recent estimate, unpaid family care costs American women an average of $295,000 in lost wages and retirement savings over the course of a lifetime.

“The daughterhood penalty isn't merely a tax on adult daughters' time and emotional well-being; it's their and their family's whole financial future.

“Seven in ten Americans over 65 will one day require long-term care, and at least one in five will need it for five or more years. Yet, according to recent polling, more than 60% of adults over 50 don't realize that long-term care is not covered by Medicare.

“Many are unprepared for the associated expenses. Last year, the national median cost for assisted living and in-home care was nearly $80,000 per year. For a private room in a nursing home, that figure rose to $129,000 — more than double the $57,000 median household income of Americans 65 and older.”

Unpaid caregiving costs the average American woman $295,000 in lost wages and retirement savings over a lifetime, jeopardizing her financial future.

05/04/2026

In 2023 the DOJ & the Dept of Transportation opposed the bargain carrier Spirit Airlines’ merger plans. 17,000 employees just lost their jobs and higher fares now flourish in the USA.

05/04/2026

“Higher debt equates to a bigger interest burden for a government, creating a feedback loop.

“JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says investors are destined to face “some kind of bond crisis” if world leaders don’t deal with high debt levels.

“At an investment conference Tuesday in Oslo held by Norges Bank Investment Management, Dimon was asked about the high levels of government debt around the world. “The way it’s going now, it would be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it,” he replied, making the point that action should be taken to prevent a crisis “as opposed to letting it happen” and having to clean it up.

“Higher debt equates to a bigger interest burden for a government, creating a feedback loop that raises concerns about whether a nation is able to pay back both the principal and interest.

“For the U.S., the situation is unique: A belief system has been created that trusts investors will continue to buy its debt given the lack of alternatives. The U.S. debt market is the largest, safest, and most liquid in the world, meaning it is easier to find buyers and sellers without taking a haircut on price. Institutional investors such as banks and hedge funds use it widely as collateral to meet liquidity needs and to hedge against riskier assets.

“Still, there’s a fear that, if the problem of debt isn’t dealt with, buyers will demand a higher rate on the debt, meaning leaders can’t turn a blind eye forever. So far in fiscal 2026, which started in October, the government has spent $1.17 trillion more than it has collected. Such deficits are also inflationary because they can increase the amount of money in the system.

“‘I don’t know how the world running deficits like this isn’t inflationary.’ Dimon said. ‘That die may have been cast. It just hasn’t happened yet.’

“March government data on inflation show that it is largely in line with expectations. But the market’s expectation of average inflation over the next decade has risen, as evidenced by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. It hit 2.44% on Monday, its highest level since mid-2025. Long-term inflation is getting impacted not just by deficits but also, more eminently, by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“‘A rise in inflation “becomes more ingrained the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,’ ING’s Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note on Monday. If the 10-year breakeven inflation rate were to rise above 2.5% and keep going, it would be hard to lower interest rates and would be outright negative for U.S. debt, he adds.

“It’s a vicious loop. Higher deficits, which get funded by higher debt, can aggravate the inflation problem, and inflation itself can pressure the U.S. debt. Cutting spending is one way to deal with the debt, and in turn this loop—but politicians are typically unwilling to lower spending, lest it constrain economic growth.”

Higher debt equates to a bigger interest burden for a government, creating a feedback loop.