06/10/2026
June STAT with May’s Data
by Paridhi Saboo
May brought a modest improvement in sales activity, with overall closed sales up about 4% year over year despite having one fewer business day than May 2025. Even so, sales volume remains roughly 14% below what is typically seen for this time of year, indicating a market that is improving but still operating below historical norms.
Active inventory declined about 5% from a year ago, the second month in a row to post a year-over-year decline. Despite the decrease in supply, sellers continued to make meaningful price adjustments to attract buyers. In May, 75% of homes that closed did so after a median price reduction of $25,000 from their original list price, compared with a typical May reduction of about $16,000 over the past 11 years.
Price reductions by property type:
Detached Single Family: 73% closed after a median reduction of $25,000
Townhouse/Condo: 84% closed after a median reduction of $24,900
Apartment: 85% closed after a median reduction of $22,750
Manufactured/Mobile Home: 79% closed after a median reduction of $17,700
Moreover, new home sales in Maricopa County declined 14% compared to last year, extending the streak of year-over-year declines to 16 months. The $500,000-$700,000 price range experienced the largest drop, down 23%. Meanwhile, the median price gap between new construction and resale homes narrowed to just 7%, well below the historical May average of roughly 30%. This creates opportunities for buyers but also increases competitive pressure on nearby resale sellers.
******My Takeaway:
The June STAT report continues to confirm what I am seeing on the ground throughout the Southeast Valley. While the overall market data is extremely valuable, it is important to remember that real estate remains hyper-local.
The areas experiencing the most pricing pressure tend to be neighborhoods where builders are actively selling new homes within the same community or within a 10-mile radius. These markets are especially challenging because builders can offer incentives such as interest rate buydowns, closing cost assistance, and inventory homes that compete directly with resale properties.
However, many buyers—especially those relocating within the Valley—have very specific location requirements based on work, schools, family commitments, or lifestyle preferences. Because of this, established neighborhoods that are largely built out and no longer have new-home competition are often holding their values much better than the broader statistics might suggest.
This is why I encourage homeowners to look beyond the headlines. A neighborhood's value is influenced not only by overall market conditions but also by local supply, buyer demand, and whether new construction is competing for the same buyers. In many mature communities, limited inventory and location-specific demand continue to support property values despite a more balanced market overall.
