04/27/2015
2015 First quarter market summary from the Triangle Area Real Estate Report: Orange County
Is traffic increasing or decreasing?
There were 8,997 showings during the quarter, an increase of 13% compared to 1Q/14. Southern Village and housing priced between 100k-200k was the most shown during the quarter.
What is happening with inventory?
There were 781 active listings at quarter end within TMLS. This was a 0% increase from inventory levels seen at quarter end a year ago. New home inventory increased by 52% and re-sale inventory decreased by 5%. There were 711 houses entered into the system as new listings during the quarter, a 3% increase compared to 1Q/14. The average list price was $516,700, an increase of 12% compared to 1Q/14. The number of expired listings increased 100% and the number of withdrawn listings increased 42% compared to 1Q/14. At quarter end, there were 247 active listings with at least one price drop from original, an 8% increase from price dropping levels at quarter end a year ago. Price dropping sellers ac- counted for 32% of quarter end listings, compared to 29% at quarter end a year ago. The average price drop was 7% compared to 7% a year ago. The average days on market for active listings at quarter end was 117, compared to 124 at quarter end a year ago.
Is anyone committing to residential real estate?
There were 439 listings with a status change to pending during the quarter. This was a 46% increase compared to 1Q/14. March pending sales accounted for 35% of March listings, compared to 20% a year ago.
How did closed sales stack up with last year?
Quarterly closings were up 4%, new home closings were up 64% and resale closings were down 2%. The average closed price was $313,800, up 2% compared to 1Q/14. Financial concessions were reported on 61% of closed sales, compared to 40% a year ago. All cash closings accounted for 25% of closed sales, down from 28% a year ago.
How hot was the re-sale market?
It is cooling off, 28% of re-sale closed sales were on the market between 1 and 30 days, down from 40% during 1Q/14.
How long did houses take to sell and did sellers have to come off of list price?
The average days on market (LADOM) for quarterly closings was 95, compared to 123 for 1Q/14 closings. The median sales to final list ratio for closings during the quarter was 97%.
Are current inventory levels indicative of an oversupply of housing?
Based upon quarterly closings, there is an 8 month supply of housing on the market within the county. The supply at the end of 1Q/14 was 9 months. An oversupplied market is designated when the supply hits 10 months.
What happens when a house is priced correctly at initial list?
Good things. When final list price is equal to original list price, the average days on market for closings was 47 days and the house sold for 98% of list. 64% of quarterly closed sales were priced correctly. When final list price is lower than orig- inal list, there was a days on market penalty. These houses sold in an average of 179 days and for an average of 88% of original list.
What is going on with housing located in the Chapel Hill/Carrboro High School District?
Closings were up 5%, the average sales price increased 0%, the median sales price increased 10%, the median sales price per square foot decreased 4% and the average days on market decreased to 93 from 130.
**Please note the monthly graphs on pages 2,4,5 and 6 reflect activity for properties located within TMLS areas 201 through 209, 224 and 228. These areas are typically referred to by market participants as Chapel Hill/Carrboro.
The Good news is that the average days on market is down from Q1 2014 especially for those houses priced correctly. There is an 8 month inventory which is down from 9 months a year ago. This market is not as hot as the raleigh market but prices had not dropped as much in orange county either.
