09/27/2022
What's the market doing?
1) Last week saw 305 properties go under contract, a strong surge for this late in the year.
The first week and second week of September were each the fourth best Week 1 and fourth best week 2 of September on record in terms of ratified contracts
The two best first and second weeks of September all time were in 2021 and 2020, the pandemic related "artificially low interest rates and printed money bonanza" years
It seems to be fashionable in real estate to compare 2022 sales data to 2019 sales data as the last "normal" year without the above referenced artificially low interest rates or printed money
Week One of September 2022 was +70% (!!!) versus 2019 in terms of ratified contracts
Week Two of September 2022 was +25% (!) versus 2019 in terms of ratified contracts
The orange line represents ratified contracts by week last year...the green line is this year...and the blue line is the 15 year average for each week.
Follow the green line below.
(2) Active Inventory stands at 2,877 listings.
While this is a significant increase over the 1,035 listing "floor" that we set in February:
Inventory growth has slowed dramatically over the last twelve weeks.
Standing inventory has moved up to 2,877 active listings (excluding under contract listings), a historically low number
Inventory growth is slowing...inventory increased from a low of 1,035 listings 29 weeks ago to almost 2,500 twelve weeks ago (an average of +88 listings per week) and now inventory has only grown by about 377 listings over the last twelve weeks (+31 per week)
We need roughly 7,000 additional listings market wide to achieve a balanced market (6 months of inventory)
The gap between the number of listings available for sale and the number of listings needed to maintain a balanced market is substantial.