12/21/2025
Compass 2026 Real Estate Outlook is published! See the link below for the report - there is a short version and for the bigger gigs there is a 70 page detailed report full of data as well!
In a nutshell:
2026 marks a step toward “normal.” After four years of pandemic-driven extremes — including frozen migration, volatile mortgage rates, major affordability challenges, and uneven supply across regions — the U.S. housing market enters a new era.
In this next phase, home sales are positioned to meaningfully grow again and affordability starts to improve as home prices level out and mortgage rates come down. Many of the unusual dynamics of the early 2020s are beginning to fade: mobility is slowly picking up, inventory is normalizing in many regions, and buyers and sellers are resetting their expectations after years of dramatic changes.
Nationally, buyers could benefit from 10% growth in the number of homes on the market, bringing more options and improved affordability.
Home prices are expected to rise modestly by 0.5% while incomes grow faster—conditions that would improve affordability.
Mortgage rates are expected to trade in a range of 5.9%-6.9%, with an average of about 6.4% for the year, offering buyers a more favorable financing environment.
Home sales could reach 4.25 million, a 5% increase from 2025, as lowering rates and growing inventory draw more buyers back to the market.
Data-driven insights into the economic forces shaping the 2026 real estate market. Explore key trends and what lies ahead for discerning buyers and sellers.
