02/16/2026
Jan 2026 recent snowstorm’s impact real estate in the Metro Washington DC area.
February 2026 D.C. Metro Housing Market Report: Storm Delays Demand, Spring Approaches
By Justin Levitch, President of RLAH | February 2026 Monthly Market Report Winter Storm Fern put the D.C. metro on ice in late January — but the data says the buyers didn’t go anywhere. Every month, our team researches and presents a market report to RLAH agents covering the latest data across the D.C. metro. It’s one of many tools our agents use to keep their clients informed throughout the entire buying or selling process. Here’s a sample of what we covered this month. How Did Winter Storm Fern Affect the D.C. Housing Market? The closest comparable we have is Winter Storm Jonas from January 22-24, 2016 — which hit on the same calendar dates. Jonas was technically more severe with 30+ inches of snow, but it was a snow event. We plowed it and were back to business in about a week. This year’s ice storm was different. You can’t plow ice, and the prolonged freeze kept people stuck for weeks instead of days — making this year’s disruption largely uncomparable to past weather events. But here’s what the weekly contract data across our core counties confirms: snowstorms pause contract activity — they don’t eliminate demand. In every storm year I’ve tracked, contracts dip during the event and bounce back within one to two weeks. 2026 is following the same pattern. Are Buyers Still Active in the D.C. Metro in Early 2026? Yes — and the rebound has been fast. According to BrightMLS data, weekly showings in the D.C. metro were running well ahead of 2025 before the storm (19,150 vs. 17,050 the week of January 18th). The ice week of February 1st dropped showings to 14,457, but by February 8th they were already back to 18,346 — on par with last year despite lingering ice. Weekly purchase contracts tell the same story with a slight lag. Contracts dropped to 835 the week of February 1st, then snapped back to 1,093 by February 8th. Demand got displaced, not destroyed — and that displaced activity is compressing into the coming weeks. How Much New Inventory Is Coming to Market? More than the past three years. Before the storm, 2026 new listings were significantly outpacing 2025 — 1,230 vs. 1,030 the week of January 18th. The ice crushed listing activity temporarily (802 new listings the week of February 1st), but all those delayed listings are about to come on at once. Sellers who can list before that wave hits have a real timing advantage. When Does the D.C. Spring Real Estate Market Start? Based on BrightMLS contract data going back to 2019, March consistently marks the start of the D.C. metro spring market. I define it as the largest month-over-month acceleration in purchase contracts after the seasonal January reset. The numbers are remarkably consistent: March 2019 (+42%), March 2021 (+48%), March 2022 (+28%), March 2023 (+28%), March 2024 (+25%), March 2025 (+42%). The only outlier was 2020, when COVID pushed the surge to May. February is already heating up. March is when people press the gas. Are D.C. Metro Home Buyers Getting Discounts in 2026? According to a recent Redfin report, D.C. metro buyers are getting the biggest discounts off list price since 2012. The median home sold about 1.6% below its original list price in 2025, nearly half of all homes (48.6%) closed below list, and buyers who negotiated below list received an average 5.8% discount — roughly $35,000 on the median $595,000 home. And the longer a home sits, the worse it gets. BrightMLS data shows homes selling within 1-10 days close at or above 100% of original list price. By 61-90 days on market, that ratio drops to around 94%. Every week without a contract costs sellers real money. What Do Mortgage Applications Say About Future D.C. Metro Demand? Mortgage purchase applications are one of the earliest indicators of buyer intent — they happen before showings, before contracts, before closings. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, Maryland purchase applications were up 25.81% year-over-year in December 2025, and Virginia was up 17%. D.C. proper was down 7.51%, so the suburban markets are leading the demand surge. That pipeline of buyers will translate into showings and contracts over the coming months. February 2026 D.C. Market Report: Key Takeaways Winter Storm Fern displaced demand but didn’t destroy it. Showings and contracts have already bounced back to pre-storm levels as of mid-February. The D.C. metro spring market historically starts in March, with the biggest month-over-month contract acceleration. Activity is already picking up in February. Nearly half of D.C. metro homes sold below list price in 2025, with an average 5.8% discount for below-list buyers. Pricing right from day one matters more than ever. Mortgage purchase applications in Maryland (+25.81%) and Virginia (+17%) are up sharply year-over-year, signaling strong early-stage buyer demand heading into spring. New listings are running ahead of the past three years — sellers listing before the post-storm wave have a timing advantage. The ice is melting. Spring is coming. And this market is about to move fast. Full February 2026 Market Report Flip through the complete slide deck below for all the data and visuals behind this analysis: Copy of Monthly Market Update February 2026 by [email protected] About this report: This monthly market report is produced by Justin Levitch, President of RLAH , and his team. Each month they analyze BrightMLS, SmartCharts, Redfin, and Mortgage Bankers Association data for the greater Washington D.C. metro area — including Washington D.C., Arlington, Alexandria, Montgomery County, Prince George’s County, and Fairfax County — and present the findings to RLAH agents so they can better advise their clients. Published monthly at blog.rlahre.com. Data sources: BrightMLS, SmartCharts, BrightMLS Weekly Market Report, Redfin, Mortgage Bankers Association
https://blog.rlahre.com/real-estate/february-2026-market-report/
