05/23/2024
Here are the top 20 fastest-growing U.S. cities over the last three years, going back to the pandemic era, according to newly released Census data. Notice some themes? Not surprising: Lots of Texas. More surprising: Massachusetts and California.
1) Texas claims 14 of the nation's 20 fastest-growing cities since 2020, measuring based on percentage change and excluding cities with populations below 20,000 people. The Dallas MSA alone is home to EIGHT of those -- including six of the nation's top 7 fastest-growing cities.
A bunch of those are clustered together in suburban Collin County and Rockwall County. Celina takes the No. 1 spot with 143.2% growth -- meaning its population has more than doubled over three years. Next-door neighbor Prosper ranks 15th. A lot of this is feeding off the boom in Frisco just south of Prosper.
A bit east of there up the U.S. 75 corridor, we see the neighboring trio of Melissa, Princeton and Anna take spots 4, 5 and 6. This group feeds off the growth in the now-maturing suburbs of McKinney and Allen just to the south. Cheaper housing (relatively speaking) is a big driver. Lots of new subdivisions getting built -- and even some apartments.
Moving southeast, we see neighboring Royce City and Fate from Rockwall County ranking 3rd and 17th, respectively. And just south of there in Kaufman County, Forney takes the No. 7 spot. New and cheaper housing (relatively speaking) is a big draw in these spots, too.
2) Other Sun Belt / Mountain hot spots include outer parts of Salt Lake City -- West Haven and Saratoga Springs (though both technically part of other MSAs).
Fort Mill, SC, just outside Charlotte, ranks 18th.
And Haines City, FL, situated between Lakeland and Orlando, comes in 19th.
3) But the real interesting ones are the two you might not expect unless you know these areas well: Amherst, MA (outside Boston), and Lathrop, CA (outside Stockton). Frankly, neither were on my radar until I saw these lists.
The Lathrop story is particularly interesting. Taking a subtle shot at other California cities, the city manager told The San Francisco Chronicle: "We don’t delay developers. That’s been our business model, to not put up roadblocks to development."
It's worked, as the city has lured homebuilders who can build new housing at prices that lure people from more expensive cities. And employers, too, with Tesla opening a major factory in 2022.
Hopefully other California cities take notice.
All of these cities will likely be targets for apartment and BTR development over the next cycle (and some are already seeing significant construction), as multifamily tends to follow single-family development and retail. Growing cities need rental housing to help house retail and restaurant workers, teachers and firefighters and other jobs critical to the fabric of any city.
