08/26/2026
Imagine giving up a 3% mortgage to buy the exact same house at 6.7%.
That's the math keeping millions of homeowners exactly where they are.
Redfin's July report found an estimated 966,752 active homebuyers in the market, the lowest number ever recorded. But the real story isn't just about buyers disappearing. It's about sellers disappearing too, and there's a clear reason why.
Roughly half of homeowners with a mortgage right now are locked into a rate below 4%. Many refinanced or bought during 2020 through 2022, when rates sat near historic lows.
Today's average 30-year rate is running closer to 6.7 to 6.8%. Selling means walking away from that old rate entirely and financing a new home at nearly double the cost, even if the new home is worth the exact same amount as the one they're leaving.
That's the mechanism economists call the lock-in effect, and it's a huge part of why sellers, motivated or not, are simply choosing to stay put instead of listing.
Sellers currently outnumber buyers by 51.3%, the second highest gap ever recorded and roughly double what it was just two years ago. Nearly 80% of major U.S. metros are now considered buyer's markets, meaning sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%, with Miami leading the country at a 154% surplus.
Here's the part that makes this different from a typical buyer's market though. Normally, more sellers than buyers means falling prices and easier negotiations.
But since so many current owners genuinely don't need to sell, price drops have stayed fairly modest so far. Sellers who are listing tend to be the ones who have to, job relocations, divorces, downsizing, not people chasing a quick sale.
If you're a buyer wondering why there's more competition among sellers but prices haven't dropped as much as you'd expect, this is why.
The people who'd normally be flooding the market with listings are sitting on a mortgage rate they'll probably never see again, and for most of them, that's reason enough to stay exactly where they are.