08/07/2021
It’s hard to believe it’s been six months since I’ve hosted an open house. Not because I didn’t want to, but because homes were selling so fast that open houses were virtually impossible to schedule. The wide-scale social, financial and governmental reactions in response to the pandemic created an unforeseen catalyst in the real estate market, leading to record high levels of demand and record low levels of inventory across the nation.
In real terms, that meant that sellers who listed on Friday had multiple offers over asking price on Saturday. It also meant that buyers often had to write five, ten, fifteen offers before they were able to purchase a home. Or before they simply gave up.
Love letters from buyers to sellers, escalation clauses, appraisal and inspection waivers all became commonplace. Buyers’ agents either became experts at writing compelling offers, or they didn’t eat.
In January, 202 single family homes were sold in the Columbia MLS. The average asking price was $249,950. The average sale price was $244,162, or 97.6% of asking. The average days on market for homes sold was 52.
By June those numbers were 485 homes sold with an average asking price of $268,913, an average sale price of $271,424 and the average days on market had dropped to 14. That is across the entire MLS. It’s also important to recognize that outliers (ie really expensive or ludicrously overpriced/undesirable properties) skew those numbers to a significant degree. For awhile it was not uncommon to see homes in the $150,000-$500,000 range selling for 20, 30, or 50 thousand over asking within 48 hours.
Now for the first time in half a year we’re starting to see signs that the market is changing. Our inventory and days on market are creeping upwards. This has led to a corresponding increase in price reductions. I've even seen a few sellers offering home warranties.
This is good news for many battle-worn buyers. For sellers, while the market is still heavily in their favor, it means that they no longer have carte blanche in respect to pricing and terms. For many that’s going to be a hard pill to swallow.
It is a law of nature that a thing which cannot last forever, won’t. In a typical year the market starts to cool in August. It slumps over the late fall and winter and picks up in spring. But we have become accustomed to the a-typical, and it feels like the exception has become the rule. As humans we tend to believe that whatever conditions exist in the present will last forever. History says this is not the case.
I don't know what the future holds for the real estate market. No one does. All I know is that I'm pumped to be able to do some open houses again.