08/18/2022
I've been saying this as well. We're STILL in recovery from the 2008 crash. As hard as it is to believe, the issue is that in 2008 ALL home building STOPPED, COMPLETELY. In Corvallis Legend Homes (Willamette Landing) filed bankruptcy in 2008 and was able to build 3 homes at a time instead of the normal 10-15 being worked on at once (about).
The only other construction from 2008-2013 in Corvallis was either student housing apartments or Chateau Construction taking small 2 bedroom bungalow houses and building 3 story multi family units (more student housing) infill in town (e.g. 27th and 25th and Grant).
ALL other construction stopped completely. It's only been in the last 4 years that we've seen construction really ramping up again, and No new LARGE housing developments have been built. There are a number of new apartments, especially in Albany, but new single family homes are STILL lacking.
This combined with the fact that people move about every 5 years on average, and throughout the downturn people stopped moving until about 2014, that's 6 years of backlog. People in 2014 started looking, and those who would have moved from 2008-2014 were also looking, which is what has caused the housing price BOOM that we've seen starting in 2014.
There are still SO many people looking for houses. Some of those people have been priced out of the market and have been looking elsewhere (e.g. Sweet Home, Silverton, Stayton, Aumsville, etc. etc. are growing like mad, and people are buying there because prices are much lower.
Other people are now going to be priced out of the market due to the increase in interest rates. Each 0.25% increase in interest rate lowers their buying power by $10,000 in the current market (1% increase decreases buying power by 10%.)
That said, there are still many people looking, and many people who can afford to weather the increased price AND the increased interest rate, so while we are seeing the market begin to slow, there are still a good number of people looking for homes, and many that are able to buy them.
I overheard a conversation this weekend between a young couple considering buying a home yet worried if and/or when the housing market may crash. 😕
Although I have extreme empathy for those of you who may be concerned about this, as this was the most recent experience we all faced with the last recession… THIS TIME, the conditions are very different!
Instead of taking my word for it, I decided to use a recent quote from an industry expert!
I hope this helps give peace of mind to those still wondering.