06/25/2025
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The Small Balance Intersection
Update - June 25, 2025
Quick Hits – June 25, 2025
📉 Multifamily starts fell 25% in May, while single-family completions rose 8.1%.
🏘️ Build-to-Rent pipeline remains robust, led by Phoenix and Dallas.
🔻 500K+ homeowners now underwater, mostly in Sun Belt metros.
📊 SFR CMBS issuance hit $7.8B in 2024, with 2025 pacing similarly.
📈 Rent growth leaders include Rochester, Syracuse, and Knoxville—secondary markets gaining momentum.
Next Exit: BTR Expansion
Build-to-Rent Pipeline Remains Strong—Phoenix Leads the Pack
As of early June, 64,200 Build-to-Rent (BTR) units were under construction nationwide, with completion projected through 2027, according to RealPage Market Analytics. The Sun Belt dominates BTR activity, accounting for 57% of all units underway, or nearly 36,840 homes, thanks to population growth, housing affordability pressures, and investor interest. The West trails behind with 19,413 units, while the Midwest and Northeast combined represent less than 10% of the pipeline. Phoenix leads all U.S. markets with over 11,500 BTR units underway, followed by Dallas (5,500 units) and Houston (4,470), reflecting high rental demand and land availability. Other active metros include Austin, Atlanta, Fort Worth, and Tampa—most of them also BTR hotspots for institutional players. Although the pace of new projects has slowed, over 7,500 additional BTR units are in the planning phase, indicating that the sector remains in expansion mode. RealPage's definition spans a broad mix—fully detached homes, duplexes, townhomes—offering operational flexibility for developers and investors. As multifamily starts pull back, BTR continues to scale as a strategic growth engine in the rental housing sector