09/01/2026
In late July, an oil-driven Treasury spike pushed the 10-year to its highest level since January 2025. Through most of August, that eased back. Then Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which had nothing to do with energy markets, pushed yields right back to the same plateau.
That's two independent events landing on the same floor. And credit spreads still haven't budged through either one.
A few things worth knowing if you have a deal in the pipeline:
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are no longer moving together. Freddie's multifamily production is up 50% year over year; Fannie's slowed. Solicit both, don't default to whichever was sharper last cycle.
Debt fund pricing has stayed flat for months, but increasingly because banks are financing those funds through back-leverage, not because the competitive picture is settled.
Worth asking your lender directly how their facility is funded.
And nearly 39% of this year's hard CMBS maturities land in Q4.
That's one month away. If you've been waiting for the benchmark to move back in your favor, it just proved it isn't going to on its own.
๐๐๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต'๐ ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐
https://insigniafs.com/cre-debt-market-sentiment-september-2026/
Jackson Hole turned hawkish, and the 10-year Treasury moved 25bps against fixed-rate CRE borrowers in six weeks. SOFR held flat. Capital is still everywhere. Structure now matters more than timing.